If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.
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In this article we look at the upcoming schedule and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners as we enter a period of blank and double Gameweeks.
Caveat: this article was written on Thursday 18th January with Gameweek 21 fixtures still left to play.
Good fixtures, followed by a double in Gameweek 25.
— Fantasy Football Fix (@FantasyFootyFix) January 18, 2024
Will you be adding a City player to your defence? 🛡️ pic.twitter.com/1uhQI0xh0b
With a home game against Burnley, followed by Brentford and Everton, and a double (both home fixtures) in Gameweek 25, Manchester City assets are the way to go. But ownership of their defence has been muted this season.
Kyle Walker (£5.4m) is the most owned City defender but has frustrated owners by managing only five clean sheets all season. Usually, a reluctance to get in City players is caused by uncertainty around game time. This is not the case with Walker who has enjoyed regular starts, yet, as Elite XI manager Corey Baker points out, the English full back has less FPL points than Everton’s Vitalii Mykolenko (£4.6m).
But the underlying data still shows that Manchester City are one of the most defensively strong sides in the Premier League. According to Opta Stats Sandbox, they are ranked top for fewest shots conceded (161), and second best for xGC (21.27). Perhaps then, they have been merely unfortunate to concede so many goals.
If you are looking to go against the grain defensively, then Joško Gvardiol (£4.8m), could be a relatively inexpensive way into the City back line. Managers will have to endure the odd random benching, but generally he starts and gets 90 minutes. Don’t expect goal involvements from the Croatian international, but clean sheets could be earned as City delve into a good run of fixtures.
With international cup competitions creating sizeable holes in our midfield, now might be a good time to take a punt on a highly influential player who is set to return from injury.
James Maddison (£7.8m) slotted in very nicely at Spurs this season and was responsible for 9 goal involvements in 10 games before he came off injured against Chelsea in Gameweek 11.
His creative numbers per 90 minutes are very impressive. According to Opta Player Heatmaps he has made 31 attempted assists this season. Per 90, this works out as 3.14 (ranked #1 for all players). He’s also ranked third best for Big Chances Created per 90 (0.61) and FPL assists (0.61).
With a decent run of fixtures up ahead, Maddison could be a great differential, although suitors are advised to keep an ear to the ground as regards his return from injury. While the Spurs midfielder is "on track" for a return against Manchester City in the FA Cup, his recovery is not guaranteed.
Ivan Toney (£7.9m) has not played a competitive match since the 6th May 2023, after serving an eight-month ban for breaches of the FA’s betting rules. But that ban is now over, and Brentford will be keen to bring the English forward back into the fold.
In the 2022/23 season, Toney was the third top goal scorer, bagging 20 goals in what was clearly the best season of his career. Unlike when players are injured, Toney has had the advantage of being able to stay in shape and so should be ready immediately.
Brentford have struggled in the latter stages of the first half of the season. Since Gameweek 10, Brentford are second from bottom for goals scored (12) – only Sheffield United (8) have done worse. They are also third worst for shots on target (38). Clearly, they are lacking the precision that Toney offered.
Brentford are the only team who not only have a confirmed double in Gameweek 25, but also won’t blank in Gameweek 29, as the FA Cup quarter finals will not interfere with their fixture against Burnley.
A word of warning to would-be-buyers; Brentford’s short-term fixtures are not great and their double, while tempting, sees them face both Liverpool and Manchester City – as doubles go, this is probably the worst you can get. In this case, going early on Toney, is a double-edged sword.
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