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Best Budget FPL Forwards: Who Is Actually Worth Picking?

Best FPL Budget Forwards £5.0m–£6.5m
Fantasy Football Fix 17 Aug. 2026

Best FPL Budget Forwards: £5.0m–£6.5m

Following a disappointing season for forwards, when only Erling Haaland surpassed 200 FPL points, Fantasy Premier League has priced several strikers more competitively for 2026/27.

After covering the best budget defenders and midfielders, we now compare the best FPL forwards priced at £6.5m or under.

We assess their expected minutes, goal threat, opening fixtures and predicted points to identify the strongest Gameweek 1 options.



Best Budget FPL Forwards: Expected Points Comparison

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is currently the most owned forward in the aforementioned price bracket with over 25% ownership. As the below image from our Opta Stats Sandbox shows, the 29-year-old was top for FPL points (142) and 'Expected FPL Points' (164.35) last season.

Expected FPL points for Budget Forwards

Danny Welbeck ranked second for xFPL last season (134.78). However, the veteran striker has since moved to Chelsea, where he is likely to lose penalty duties and play fewer minutes.

Despite playing just 2,222 minutes, Jean-Philippe Mateta ranked third for xFPL (134.65). Following his involvement in the World Cup, the French international has yet to link up with Crystal Palace and remains a doubt for Gameweek 1.

Brian Brobbey is currently the second most-owned budget forward at 18%, with no other player in this price bracket selected by more than 10% of FPL managers. The Dutch international impressed at the World Cup, although he ranked only 11th for xFPL last season (97.29) after playing just 1,931 minutes.

What Does xFPL Mean in Fantasy Premier League?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA), which combine to form expected FPL involvements (xG + xA = xI), along with expected clean sheets (xCS). These values are based on underlying statistics — for example, shot type and location determine the probability of scoring, which contributes to xG. xFPL then combines these metrics, factoring in appearance and bonus points to produce an overall expected FPL point score.

Are Any FPL Forwards Under £5.5m Worth Picking?

There are currently 39 forwards listed in FPL at £5.5m and under with Thierno Barry (1,898) and Georginio Rutter (1,776) playing the most minutes from the existing 17 Premier League sides.

Stats for Forwards £5.5m and under

As the above image from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature shows, the Everton forwards Beto (11.19) and Barry (10.16) top the xG charts in this price bracket but neither is guaranteed starts.

For FPL managers searching for value at £5.5m or under, forwards from the promoted teams appear to offer the most potential.

Oli McBurnie scored 18 Championship goals last season, with only Žan Vipotnik finding the net more often among forwards with 23.

Haji Wright was Coventry’s leading scorer with 17 goals and is also expected to be on penalty duties for the Sky Blues.

Which Budget FPL Forwards Have the Best Fixtures?

Newcastle are ranked top of the Fixture Difficulty Ratings for the first six Gameweeks and all their three forwards Woltemade, Osula and Wissa are priced at £6.0m.

As the below image from our Opta Stats Sandbox shows, Osula was ranked third for 'big chances' over the final six Gameweeks but it remains to be seen who new manager Matthias Jaissle favours as his starting forward.

Goal Threat Stats for Forwards Gameweek 33-38 F

As the below image from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings shows, four of the top five teams for 'Attack Difficulty' over the first six Gameweeks - Newcastle, Everton, Forest and Fulham have forward options under £7.0m but there remains uncertainty around all of them

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As mentioned earlier, Beto and Barry led this price bracket for xG. However, David Moyes’ rotation makes it difficult to identify a reliable weekly starter from Everton’s forward options.

There is similar uncertainty at Nottingham Forest, where new manager Oliver Glasner must choose between Igor Jesus, Taiwo Awoniyi and Chris Wood. Glasner could even opt to play two of them together.

This is reflected in the below image from our Predicted Lineups feature where Igor Jesus is rated only at 57% to start in Gameweek 1.

Predicted Lineups for Nottingham Forest against Leeds in Gameweek 1

Raúl Jiménez' departure to Wolves could have meant more minutes for Rodrigo Muniz but their new manager Alvaro Arbeloa has signed Gonzalo García who he favoured from his time at Real Madrid.

Highest-Predicted Budget FPL Forwards

The most popular forward in this price bracket, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, leads the Player Points Projections among budget forwards with 22.6 points. The 29-year-old also rivals more expensive options such as Igor Thiago and Ollie Watkins for big chances, highlighting his goal threat and value.

Player Points Projections for Budget Forwards

Oli McBurnie is the standout option among the promoted forwards, with a projected 22.1 points. Secure minutes and likely penalty duties are major parts of his appeal.

Rodrigo Muniz ranks third among the budget forwards with 20.9 projected points. The 25-year-old is expected to begin the season as Fulham’s first-choice centre-forward.

Brian Brobbey is projected to score 18.6 points. His early outlook is encouraging, but the fixtures become more difficult when Sunderland face Arsenal and Manchester City in Gameweeks 4 and 5.

Georginio Rutter is projected to score 17.2 points and could receive more opportunities following Danny Welbeck’s move to Chelsea. However, he is likely to share minutes with Brighton’s young Greek forwards, Charalampos Kostoulas and Stefanos Tzimas.



Best Budget FPL Forwards for Gameweek 1: Final Verdict

Most forwards priced at £6.5m or under carry some risk around their expected minutes. However, the situation should become clearer once the season gets underway.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s popularity is understandable. His combination of goal threat, predicted points and expected minutes makes him the clear top pick in this price bracket.

Brian Brobbey could be a worthwhile short-term punt to target Sunderland’s favourable opening fixtures. However, the start of their European campaign after Gameweek 3 could make his minutes less secure.

Chris Wood and Igor Jesus are also worth monitoring at Nottingham Forest. Wood scored 20 Premier League goals in 2024/25, while Jesus has impressed during pre-season, but the attacking hierarchy remains uncertain.

Oli McBurnie and Haji Wright are the most appealing alternatives from the promoted teams. Both should offer regular minutes and potential penalty duties, although their difficult opening fixtures limit their Gameweek 1 appeal.

For now, Calvert-Lewin stands out as the best budget FPL forward.

5 Best Budget FPL Forwards for Gameweek 1

Based on expected minutes, goal threat, opening fixtures and predicted points, these are our five best FPL forwards priced at £6.5m or under:

5. Haji Wright

Coventry’s leading scorer last season should offer secure minutes and could also be on penalties. The opening fixtures reduce his appeal, but Wright remains one of the better options from the promoted clubs.

4. Brian Brobbey

Brobbey could be a worthwhile early-season punt due to Sunderland’s opening fixtures. However, tougher matches and European commitments from Gameweek 4 onwards make him more appealing as a short-term pick.

3. Rodrigo Muniz

Muniz is projected to start the season as Fulham’s first-choice centre-forward. Competition from Gonzalo García creates some uncertainty, but he could offer excellent value if his starting place is secure.

2. Oli McBurnie

McBurnie scored 18 Championship goals last season and should benefit from regular minutes and penalty duties. He looks like the standout budget forward from the promoted teams.

1. Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Calvert-Lewin leads the predicted points among budget forwards and also produced the highest xFPL total in this price bracket last season. His combination of goal threat, expected minutes and early fixtures makes him the clear top pick.


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