Blog

20 Oct.

GW5 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

B. Fernandes tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek five with a score of 11.9. The Portuguese was the week’s most creative player with six attempted assists and he also landed three shots on target (SoT). No player took more shots (seven) or landed more SoT (four) than Rashford. Benefiting from a striker role due to Martial’s suspension, the 22-year-old also attempted three assists, notching an xFPL score of 8.3. No player was afforded more ‘big chances’ than Mané’s three. The Senegalese registered an xFPL score of 8.6 with four shots in the box (SiB) and two attempted assists. Werner and Kane both registered 16-point FPL returns and are close for xFPL score as well with 9.4 and 9.3 respectively. The German scored his brace from two of his three shots whereas Kane took six.

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2. Kane vs Son

Kane (60) and Son (58) are now the top scoring assets across all positions in FPL and over the next three games, they play Burnley, Brighton and West Brom. Investment in Spurs’ flowing attack seems necessary going forward and using the Fix Heatmaps feature, the two are compared to determine the better option. While Kane (five) has scored fewer goals than Son (seven), he has taken more than double the shots (26 to 12) and landed more SoT as well (13 to nine). He beats Son for assists (seven to two) but actually trails him for attempted assists (13 to 16). In terms of expected goals (3.80 to 2.80) and expected assists, (3.41 to 1.61) the Englishman wins out again. Going by these numbers, it is clear that Kane is the superior asset and a better captain option going forward than the Korean.

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3. The Liverpool defence

Van Dijk suffered an injury against Everton that is likely to rule him out for a significant period, which has a knock on effect on the clean sheet prospects of Liverpool’s full-backs Alexander-Arnold and Robertson. Using the Stats Sandbox feature, their possible replacement options are compared. Both of Liverpool’s full-backs are in the top six for attempted assists so they are still good options in terms of attacking potential. No defender has notched more assists (three) or created more chances than Cresswell (12) but the next two fixtures for the Hammers are Man. City and Liverpool, which will no doubt dissuade investors. Digne registered his third assist of the season against Liverpool, with 11 chances created he trails only Cresswell (12) for attempted assists and only Robertson (28.91) for xFPL (27.74). Chilwell’s numbers are impressive considering he has played only 180 minutes. The left-back attempted seven assists and three shots over his two matches played. Saiss comes in fourth for xFPL (25.39), but it is interesting to note that the Moroccan has attempted just one assist despite featuring in a wing-back role for the last two matches. On the face of it, Digne, Chilwell and Saiss all appear to be great options. 

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