Introducing a new feature for Fix Members – Expected Fantasy Premier League points (xFPL). This metric combines expected clean sheets, goals and assists to give an idea of a player’s statistical performance vs his actual FPL returns for the gameweek. A look at the table from gameweek five shows that Hazard, Doherty, D. Silva and Sterling top the list. Doherty looks a bargain at 4.4, but it is worth mentioning that his counterpart on the left flank, Jonny, also at 4.4, had similar expected FPL involvement numbers and better baseline bonus, and is also worthy of consideration. The numbers for the Man. City duo indicate that they were unlucky not to register more FPL involvements, and underlines their potential for the weeks ahead. Salah’s numbers are particularly interesting. The Egyptian had a xFPL of 8.9, higher than Mané’s 7.6, but returned only two FPL points, indicating that he still holds promise for future weeks. One of the biggest bandwagons of this week, Fraser, looks to have massively overperformed, with a FPL return of 18 points vs a xFPL of 8.9, which makes sense as he scored from his only two shots on target.
The best player in Europe? His manager certainly seems to think so. Sarri is bringing the best out of the Belgian wizard, stating in his post match interview that he wants Hazard to waste less energy in the middle of the park, and believes he can go on to score 30-40 goals this season. This is a big statement for FPL managers, considering Hazard’s previous two bosses, Mourinho and Conte, often saddled the playmaker with defensive responsibilities. With Europa League seen as an opportunity to play the younger players like Loftus-Cheek, Hudson-Odoi etc, Hazard has minimal rotation risk compared to other midfield heavy hitters who have Champions League duties to contend with. As the heatmap shows, despite limited minutes in his first two games, the Belgian is posting impressive numbers, and deserves consideration for a place in your FPL squad.
Just one midfielder with over 10% ownership registered a goal or assist this gameweek – Hazard. A look at the xFPL table shows that the Liverpool duo were very unlucky not to get any returns. The numbers for the others however, does not make for promising reading. Jorginho and Kante have zero xFPL, despite Chelsea scoring four goals, indicating they offer little value even as eighth attackers. Owners of Walcott were not rewarded for their patience, as the diminutive winger showed little potential vs one of the leakiest defenses in the league, West Ham, and should consider exit options, especially with Richarlison’s return imminent. Pedro, Pereyra and Pogba should perhaps be given another week considering their upcoming opponents and some promise, albeit not great, of FPL returns.
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