1. xFPL review
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.
Salah tops the Custom Stats xFPL table this week with a massive 14.6 score. The Egyptian took more shots in the box (SiB) than any player this week (eight) while also leading the way for shots on target (SoT) (five) and ‘big chances’ (four). B. Fernandes comes in second with an xFPL score of 11.7. The Portuguese took two SiB, both of which were ‘big chances’ and also attempted three assists. De Bruyne can consider himself unlucky to notch just seven FPL points. The Belgian was the week’s most creative player with seven attempted assists, two of which were ‘big chances’, notching an xFPL score of 7.9. Ings posted impressive numbers as well with four SiB and three attempted assists, notching an xFPL score of 9.2.
2. Teams on the slide
After a strong start to the season, Wolves have now failed to score in their last two games and have landed just two SoT across those two matches. Using the Stats Sandbox feature for Team Stats, the expected goals (xG) stat for teams over the last two matches is compared, and Spurs come out bottom with just 0.79 xG. The North London side have created zero ‘big chances’ over the last two matches and taken just 10 SiB. Everton, Wolves and Newcastle have taken the fewest SiB (eight) and all post low xG numbers (1.20, 1.34 and 1.38 respectively). The data indicates that the aforementioned teams are struggling to create chances and this is would explain why the likes of Jiménez, Kane and Calvert-Lewin have not been delivering FPL points of late.
3. Who are the form frontmen?
To determine the best exit routes for the likes of Jiménez and Kane, the Stats Sandbox is again used with a focus on the xG for strikers over the last two. Vardy comes out on top with an xG of 2.1, no striker has taken more shots than his nine over the last two matches or been afforded more ‘big chances’ (four). Jesus comes in second with an xG of 1.80 courtesy of eight SiB, four of which were ‘big chances’. Ings numbers are also impressive considering one of those matches was against Man. City. The Saints’ talisman has taken five SiB over the last two, of which two were ‘big chances’, coming in fourth for xG (1.24). The immediate fixture against Man. Utd. is less appealing, but given his form he could do something, he then plays Brighton and Bournemouth in gameweek 36+ and 37+, which on paper looks very attractive. All of the above look like excellent replacement options for the misfiring Wolves, Everton and Spurs assets.