Blog

8 March

GW30 Top Five Key Players

By The Editor ()

Harry Kane (bou)

Kane (12.9), has had another formidable season and currently shares the golden boot’s top spot with Salah (10.6). After facing elimination from the Champions League at the hands of Juventus on Wednesday, Kane, will be keen to kick on in the league and a goal or two will certainly make him and his Spurs’ teammates feel a little less gloomy. The Spurs forward found his 26th Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvement of the season in gameweek 29 with an incredible assist for Son’s (8.0) second goal versus Huddersfield. Kane and Salah are now tied on 24 goals this season and have each been involved in 33 big chances (high probability of scoring). But, over the last four gameweeks Kane has had the edge when it comes to big chances registering eight compared to Salah’s six. The England forward remains first across the board for total shots with 121, shots from inside the box, with 107 and shots on target, with 67, and also cannot be rivalled in these departments over the previous four gameweeks. Bournemouth host Spurs in gameweek 30 and look to have a challenging task on their hands keeping Kane and co. at bay. The Cherries have conceded 13 goals in their last five league games against top six opponents and Tottenham are predicted to score 1.87 goals via our Fix algorithm, which is the fourth best total across the league. The Fix algorithm also projects that Kane will score 6.0 points which makes him a great candidacy for captain.

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Eden Hazard (CRY)

Hazard (10.6), looks to be a victim of miss-management again this season, as he was in 2015/16. Strange, given Conte’s influence in Chelsea’s revival which saw them win the Premier League last season. The Belgian international has been directly involved in six goals during the last six gameweeks despite tough fixtures against Man. United and Man. City in that time. His five goals during that period is more than Kane, who has managed four. Amongst midfielders, Hazard’s 16 FPL involvements can only be beaten by Sané (8.5), Mahrez (8.7) with 19, De Bruyne (10.4) with 23, Sterling (8.7), with 25, and Salah, with 34, while only Sánchez (11.7), with 33, De Bruyne, with 34, and Salah, with 53, have taken more than the Chelsea midfielder’s 31 shots on target this season. Over the last six gameweeks Hazard’s 18 attempted assists is behind only Groß (5.9) who has 19, and De Bruyne’s, 21, while only Shaqiri (6.3), De Bruyne, with eight each, and Salah, with nine, have taken more than the Belgian’s seven efforts on target. Chelsea will welcome a haplessly unlucky Crystal Palace side to the Bridge for gameweek 30. The Eagles have narrowly lost to both Spurs and Man. United in the last two gameweeks so could be feeling a little hard done by. If they carry any of that negativity from those near misses into this affair, expect Chelsea to put them to the sword. Conte’s men have been woefully under-par in recent weeks and will want a positive result from this one, with Barcelona looming in midweek. Hazard and Chelsea are forecast to score 5.1 points and 2.19 goals here, via our Fix algorithm.

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Leroy Sané (stk)

Sané (8.5) is this week’s mid-priced (8.5 and under) midfielder having taken little time to remind us all of his superstar presence when on the field in recent games. The 22-year-old was lively throughout against Chelsea and scored and assisted in gameweek’s 28’s match-up with Arsenal. The Man. City midfielder has been directly involved in 19 league goals this season, scoring eight times himself and providing 11 assists. When compared with other midfielders priced at 8.5 or below only Pogba (7.9) has amassed more assists, with 12, and Groß has created more big chances with 15 to Sané’s 12. Sané has been involved in 10 big chances this season and only David Silva (8.0), with 13, Richarlison (6.1), with 14, and Son, with 14, have had more amongst mid-priced midfielders. His two FPL involvements over the last two gameweeks is on par with Mané (9.4) and Son, with Salah being the only player to provide more amongst midfielders, with 3. Let’s face it, it does not matter who Man. City come up against these days, but gameweek 30 seems them face a struggling Stoke side away from home. Our Fix algorithm tips Man. City to be top scorers in gameweek 30 with 2.52, so it is hardly a surprise to see a 4.9 point projection for Sané. Stoke faced a 7-2 mauling in the reverse earlier on in the season and we do not see why Man. City cannot score four plus goals in this one given that Pep can play a full strength side with 19 days off until their next competitive fixture.

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Cesar Azpilicueta (CRY)

Azpilicueta (6.9), gets the nod ahead of Alonso (7.2) for gameweek 30 given his seemingly unshakeable tendency to play in all games. Chelsea will face Barcelona just a few days after this encounter, so, Emerson (5.4) “could” deputise in place of Alonso. The Spanish defender has picked up an impressive average of 5.0 points per game this season and only Marcos Alonso sits above him for total points scored, amongst defenders. Azpilicueta’s six assists is on par with Walker (6.6), Davies (5.9) and Cresswell (5.1) and no defender has produced more. He has created more big chances, with eight, than any other defender, and only Davies has provided more FPL involvements with eight compared to Azpilicueta’s seven. Chelsea have kept clean sheets in three of their last four home games and their 14 clean sheets this season is on par with Spurs and Man. City, only Man. United have kept more, with 15. Chelsea welcome a Crystal Palace side who have had the upper-hand in their recent encounters winning three to Chelsea’s two over the last five. Conte will be mindful of this record as well as the Eagles threat and therefore could set up in a way that is more respectful to nullifiy counter-attacks. The last two games Chelsea won versus Crystal Palace in the league has seen them keep clean sheets in both and Conte will know a clean sheet is as important as scoring given Chelsea’s recent fragilities. Conte’s job is on the line and our Fix algorithm places Chelsea alongside Man. City at the top of the clean sheet potential table, both with a 52% chance. Azpilicueta is predicted to score 5.0 points.

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Glenn Murray (eve)

Murray (5.8), has emerged as this year’s number one budget striker in recent weeks with 11 league goals to his name, surpassing last summer’s blockbuster signings Morata (10.4) and Lacazette (10.2) who have scored 10 and 9 respectively. Of forwards priced under 6.5, Wilson (5.9) and Niasse (4.9) are next in line having each scored four less than Murray.  The journeyman’s total of five shots on target over the last four gameweeks is on par with Lukaku (11.2) and Aubameyang (10.4) while only Agüero (11.9), with 7, and Kane, with 10, have taken more amongst forwards. Over the last four gameweeks Murray has scored more goals, with four, provided more attempted assists, with seven, and been involved in more big chances, with four, than any other forward, priced at 8.5 or below. When analysing the same player group the Brighton man ranks joint first for shots on target, with 5, and FPL involvements, with four, during the last four gameweeks. Benteke (7.6) has taken more shots from inside the box, but it is marginal, with 11 to Murray’s nine. Brighton travel north to face Everton in gameweek 30 and will be hoping to maintain their goal-scoring averages which have increased significantly in recent weeks. From gameweek 26 to gameweek 29 Brighton have averaged 2.5 goals per game compared to their measly return of 0.4 goals a game between gameweek 16 and gameweek 25. Everton have not kept a clean sheet in nine games and have conceded an average of 2 goals per game across their last seven, which could bode well for the Premier League’s joint-eighth top goal-scorer, Murray.

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The Editor

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