23 June

GW30+ Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Villa’s centre-back Hause tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Double Gameweek 30+, no player took more shots (eight) or landed more shots on target (SoT) (three) than the big man. He also leads the way for ‘big chances’ (three) and also created a ‘big chance’ leading to a massive xFPL score of 18.1. Foden (22) and Mahrez (21) were the top scorers in terms of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points. The Englishman scored from three of his four shots, none of which were ‘big chances’ which explains his low xFPL score of 9.1. The Algerian posted better underlying numbers, he took four shots in the box (SiB), two of which were ‘big chances’ whilst notching an xFPL score of 13.9. Ritchie’s numbers also catch the eye, the defender played in an attacking midfield role against Sheff. Utd. and landed three SoT along with attempting two assists. However, it is worth mentioning that none of these shots were in the box which is why he registered an xFPL score of only 8.9.


2. Rashford vs. Martial

Man. Utd. fought back to earn a point against Spurs in gameweek 30 and the Red Devils now have an attractive fixture run until the end of the season. While B. Fernandes is already looking like a must-have, the other two Man. Utd. attackers of interest are compared using our Fix Heatmaps feature. Both have played similar minutes despite injuries and one thing that is immediately visible is Rashford’s (26) superior Bonus Points score compared to Martial (seven). Though both have taken a similar number of SiB (44 to 43), it is worth noting Rashford’s 15.85 expected goals (xG) compared to Martial’s 10.27. The Englishman did take a few penalties which probably inflates that number, and is worth consideration. The Englishman also beats the Frenchman for attempted assists, 25 to 21. The only stat which Martial wins out is ‘big chances’ created (five to four). Given Rashford’s injury absence it might take him some time to get fully up-to-speed but based on these numbers, it is clear that he is the Man. Utd attacker to add alongside B. Fernandes.


3. Hungry as a pack of Wolves

Like Man. Utd., Wolves will also benefit from an excellent fixture run until the end of the season, and using the Stats Sandbox feature their assets are compared in various positions. It is no surprise that their top scorer with 14 goals, Jiménez, leads the way for xFPL score (165), but Doherty is not too far behind with 142. The Irishman has landed 16 SoT this season while only Jota (22) and Jiménez (36) have managed more. He is ranked third for xG as well (6.02). In terms of xFPL score, it is worth noting that their defenders/goalkeeper occupy the second to sixth spots which indicates that their defence is well worth the investment. While Doherty and Jiménez look like must-haves, doubling up on Wolves defence looks a wise move as opposed to opting for Jota or Traore who might see their game time limited as was on show in gameweek 30 against West Ham. 


Fantasy Football Fix