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GW26 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 20 Feb. 2020

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Son tops the Custom Stats xFPL table this week with a whopping score of 17.8, the Korean landed six shots on target (SoT) against Villa, the joint-highest by any player in a single gameweek this season (Pukki vs Newcastle in gameweek two being the other). All his seven shots were in the box, he was afforded three ‘big chances’ and created one himself, which explains the high score. The week’s highest scorer with 17 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points Pepe comes in at second with an xFPL score of 11.5. The Ivory Coast international created three ‘big chances’ and took three shots with one of them a ‘big chance’. De Bruyne was the most creative player with six attempted assists, two of which were ‘big chances’. He also landed two SoT, notching an xFPL score of 10.0.

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2. Son replacements

With the Korean ruled out for an extended period due to an elbow injury, managers are faced with a decision on how to replace him in their midfields. The highest projected midfielders  under 10.0 for the next four gameweeks as per the Fix Algorithm are put under the scanner using the Fix Comparison Matrix. Averages are used since Richarlison has only played two games compared to four for the others. The Brazilian leads the comparison for FPL points (7.5), FPL assists (1.5) and SoT (1.5) but has difficult fixtures with Arsenal, Man. Utd and Chelsea his next opponents. Alli leads the way for SiB (2.3) and ‘big chances’ (six) but these are inflated by his numbers against Villa where he recorded four ‘big chances’ and five SiB. Maddison is by far the most creative with 4.3 attempted assists but the 0.5 SiB average per match is off-putting. H. Barnes with 2.3 SiB appears to be the better option for the Foxes. Martial comes in third for SoT (1.0) and fourth for SiB (1.8) so the underlying numbers are not in the Frenchman’s favour, but with the win against Chelsea the Red Devils might build some momentum and playing ‘out-of-position’ he appears a decent pick.

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3. Keep the faith in De Bruyne

The Belgian once again reminded managers of his pedigree with a goal and assist against West Ham, taking his total to 175 FPL points, the highest in the league. This was his only double digit haul in the last six gameweeks and with Man. City facing a blank gameweek in 28 and probably in 31 as well many managers might be considering shipping the Belgian but his underlying numbers remain impressive. Only Doucoure (33.88), Son (37.56), Perez (37.95) and Salah (63.58) registered a higher xFPL score than the Belgian’s 32.30 over the last six gameweeks amongst midfielders as per our Stats Sandboxfeature. He leads the way for chances created (23) and only Salah (seven) has created more ‘big chances’ than his five. He is fourth for shots as well (14). Even with the blank gameweeks coming and possible rotation due to Champions League, De Bruyne remains ‘essential’. 

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