Agüero (11.8), was the pick of the bunch from our top five last week, scoring a colossal 17 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points much to the pleasure of those who decided to captain him. His pedigree is unquestionable averaging over 7.5 points per 90 minutes during his six and a half seasons. The Man. City forward has played the full 90 minutes in City’s last three league games, since Jesus (9.9) suffered his knee injury in gameweek 21. Since gameweek 22, the Argentine has four goals and one assist to his name and no player has provided more than Agüero’s five FPL involvements in this time. He is also leading the way for big chances with four and only Kane (13.0) has taken more shots on target with 10 to Agüero’s seven. Only 20% of the top 1,000 FPL managers currently own Agüero, compared to Firmino’s (9.2) 70% ownership and Kane’s 85%, so the Man. City forward is somewhat of a differential in comparison. In gameweek 25, Man. City will face a West Brom side who have conceded 13 goals in six games versus “top six” opponents this season. Pep’s side are predicted to score 2.74 goals this week and Agüero is predicted to land 6.9 points via our Fix algorithm – queue a large captaincy percentage amongst his owners.
In footballing social circles the question “who is the signing of the summer?” is often mooted. Well, let us put that debate firmly to bed, Salah (10.2), has made light work of the Premier League in his second tenure and is without doubt the answer. Liverpool’s 1-0 defeat to Swansea last gameweek saw Salah fail to return FPL points for just the second time during his last 15 league appearances, with the midfielder producing an astounding tally of 14 goals and six assists during that period. The Egyptian international is first amongst midfielders for goals, with 18, and shots on target, with 45, this season, while only Kane, with 21 goals & 54 shots on target, has managed more across the board. No player has had more big chances, with 25, or FPL involvements, with 26, than the lively Liverpool man. His total of 17 shots from inside the box over the last four gameweeks is more than any other player has taken, Agüero and Kane are second and third for shots inside the box over that timeframe, with 15 and 12 respectively. Liverpool will line-up against Huddersfield away from home in gameweek 25. The Terriers have conceded nine goals in their last three games and are without a win in their last six. Liverpool are projected to score 2.74 goals alongside Man. City this gameweek and with Salah contributing to 48% of Liverpool’s goals so far this season the Fix algorithm projection of 7.6 points looks well placed.
Alonso (7.3), is as close as we will get to an essential defender at this moment in time. The Spanish left wing-back may even escape the January transfer window without Chelsea acquiring a rival to his position. If that is the case, he is a must, given his penchant for bombing forward. Having produced six points or more in each of the last eight gameweeks it comes as no surprise that he has scored the most FPL points amongst defenders so far. That run has seen Alonso provide three goals and one assist in addition to keeping six clean sheets. His total of 10 shots on target over the last eight gameweeks is far more than any other defender has managed with Bellerin (6.1) and Evans (4.9) next in line, each having taken just four shots on target. Similarly, no defender has produced more attempted assists, with 15, total shots, with 17, or shots from inside the box, with 11, during that period. In gameweek 25 Chelsea will face Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge. The Cherries have only scored two goals in seven appearances versus the “top six” this season and have lost all but one of them. Chelsea sit second in the predicted clean sheet table for gameweek 25 with a 55% chance and our Fix algorithm therefore suggests a healthy score of 6.4 points for Alonso.
Vardy (8.5), is a nailed on option in the mid-priced bracket whose form has been strong since Leicester’s league winning season - weighing in with 65 FPL involvements (goals and assists) in that time at an average of 26 per season. The Leicester City forward scored his 10th league goal of the season from the penalty spot during Leicester’s 2-0 win over Watford in gameweek 24 and when compared with other forwards priced at £8.5m or below only the out of form, Rooney (7.4), can equal Vardy’s goal total of 10, with no player managing more. When looking at other mid-priced options (£8.5m or under) Vardy’s 18 shots on target for the season can only be beaten by Rodriguez (5.5) with the West Brom forward having taken 19. Over the last six gameweeks only Firmino, with four, Agüero, with 6, and Kane, with nine, have scored more goals than Vardy who has three despite the Leicester forward missing one game due to injury. Leicester face Everton away in gameweek 25 and with the Fix algorithm only offering a 24% chance of a clean sheet for the Toffees, ranking them out in 14th this should spell points for Vardy. His pace in behind should cause trouble for Williams (5.2), who is not the quickest, and Holgate (4.3), who is not the most experienced. Our Fix algorithm sees the potential for returns and predicts 4.7 points.
Shaqiri (6.0), is our pick of the bunch from the mid-priced midfielders this week. The Swiss international could be just the answer for those that own injured or under-performing players around this price point. His fine solo goal in the defeat away to Crystal Palace in gameweek 13 is all the proof you need that this is a player with bundles of talent. Paul Lambert’s arrival has seen the end of Stoke’s winless run, following the 2-0 victory over Huddersfield last gameweek with Shaqiri registering an assist and three shots on target. The midfielder has played a hand in 10 league goals this season scoring four and providing six assists. Despite picking up just one assist over his last four matches Shaqiri’s total of 10 attempted assists across those games is on par with Özil (9.3) and Hazard (10.6). Stoke City teammate Choupo-Moting (5.4) is a cheaper alternative, however, in their last four matches played, Shaqiri has produced more attempted assists, 10 to three, taken more shots on target, six to two, and shots inside the box, six to five. Stoke now find themselves with an appetising run of fixtures which includes Bournemouth, Brighton, Leicester and Southampton over the next five. First up is a Watford side who have conceded 10 goals in their last five games and as a result our Fix algorithm predicts that Stoke will score 1.70 goals. Given Shaqiri’s impressive underlying numbers, our player algorithm forecasts returns for Shaqiri and a score of 4.4 points.
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