Blog

18 Feb.

GW24 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Fulham’s Nigerian defender Aina tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 24 with a whopping score of 18.5. The 24-year old notched a goal, assist and a clean sheet across Fulham’s two matches, taking three shots in the box (SiB) and attempting two assists. Mount was the week’s most creative player with five attempted assists but none of these were ‘big chances’ which led to a low 3.6 xFPL score. Lingard and B. Silva led the way for SoT with four apiece, the Portuguese man's xFPL numbers were far superior though, 10.0 to the Englishman's 3.9. No player took more shots overall than A. Barnes (eight), just two of these attempts were on target, but he still managed an impressive 12.2 xFPL score.

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2. A look at Southampton

Southampton play twice in gameweek 24 and their numbers are analysed over the last four gameweeks using our Stats Sandbox feature. Ings leads the way for shots (eight), shots on target (SoT) (four) and xFPL (16.11) while only Redmond (seven) and Ward-Prowse (six) have created more chances than his five. Redmond has been playing in a striker role of late and trails only Ings for shots (seven) while topping the creative numbers. Ward-Prowse is joint-first with Ings for FPL points (14), the set-piece specialist is one of only two outfield players (Bertrand being the other) to have played the entire 360 minutes for the Saints over the last four.

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3. Who are the in-form teams in attack?

A lot has can change in four gameweeks and using the Team Level Stats feature in the Stats Sandbox, the numbers over the league are compared. After appearing in the top four for most attacking metrics across the season, Villa are now 16th (23) for SiB and 19th for expected goals (xG). Chelsea lead the way for SiB (45) but are only fourth for xG (6.50). However, two of the teams above them, Fulham and Man. City have each played an extra game which is worth mentioning. Leeds’ numbers are promising ahead of their double gameweek, only Man. Utd (13) and Man. City (14) have created more ‘big chances’ than their 10 across the last four gameweeks. Brighton are also a team to monitor, the Seagulls have taken more shots (65) than any other side in the division over the aforementioned period. 

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