Headliner – Harry Kane (BUR)

Having voiced his desire to challenge Aubameyang for the golden boot, Kane is the headliner for this week’s picks as he welcomes 17^th placed Burnley to Wembley in gameweek 17. As the Custom Stats Table shows, over the last six gameweeks no forward has scored more goals than Kane’s four, and the Englishman also leads the way for shots on target (SoT) with 14, well ahead of second placed Rondón who has eight. Only Man. City (36) and Liverpool (36) have fired in more SoT than Spurs’ 35 during this period, and only the Champions scored more goals (18) than their 14. He could have hardly asked for more obliging opponents to kick off his golden boot charge – the Clarets have shipped 32 goals in their 16 matches, second only to Fulham (40) and allowed opponents a league high 331 shots, of which 192 were shots in the box (SiB). Only Fulham (108) allowed opponents more SoT than Burnley’s 101, and they are also the worst team for ‘big chances’ conceded with 46. Spurs will be brimming with confidence after their midweek Champions League progression, and our Fix Algorithm backs Kane to put Burnley to the sword with a projected point score of 7.5

Raheem Sterling (EVE)

Sterling will be looking to get back to the top of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) standings as he welcomes the Toffees to the Etihad in gameweek 17. As the Custom Stats Table shows no midfielder has scored more goals on home turf than Sterling’s six, and only Pogba (12), Hazard (12) and Salah (12) have had more SoT than Sterling’s 10 in home matches. Despite missing three games, the winger leads the way for penalty box touches with 128, and only Richarlison (26), Mané (26) and Salah (41) have taken more SiB amongst midfielders. He ranks fourth for SoT (16), trailing only Hazard (17), Pogba (20) and Salah (26), all of whom have played more games than the Englishman. He also ranks fifth for ‘big chances’ with seven, trailing Moura (eight), Sane (eight), Sigurdsson (eight) and Salah (14). Man. City have scored 30 goals in their eight home matches, an average of nearly four a game. Although the Everton defence has shown signs of improvement with only five goals conceded in the last six gameweeks, the ease with which Watford scored two past them in gameweek 16 indicates that they will ship goals at the Etihad, and our Fix Algorithm expects Sterling to lead the assault, with a projected point score of 5.8.

Roberto Pereyra (CAR)

Pereyra got his first attacking returns since gameweek 10 with two assists against Everton to put himself back on the FPL radar ahead of a kind run of fixtures for Watford. As the Fix Heatmaps feature shows, the Argentinian averages 5.6 points per home game, with four of his five goals coming at Vicarage road. He has taken more SiB than any teammate (14) at home, and also created the most chances (10), highlighting his importance to Watford’s attack. Only Huddersfield (17), Burnley (17), Southampton (20) and Fulham (24) have shipped more goals on their travels than Cardiff’s 15, and the Bluebirds’ are also third worst for ‘big chances conceded’ with 22. They have taken just one point from their seven away games, the lowest in the league. Our Fix algorithm backs the Argentinian to get attacking returns, with a point score of 4.7.

Javier Hernández Balcázar (ful)

The injury to Arnautovic has led to Hernández cementing his spot on the team sheet for West Ham, and the Mexican has shown that he is a capable replacement for the Austrian. As per the Custom Stats Table, over the last three gameweeks, only Jesus (nine) and Aubameyang (eight) have taken more SiB amongst forwards than Chicharito’s seven while only Lukaku (six) and Rashford (six) have attempted more SoT than his four. No forward has been afforded more ‘big chances’ than Chicharito’s six, or scored more than his three goals. West Ham scored nine goals across these three games, the highest in the league and only Man. United (23) attempted more SoT than their 21. Despite a change in manager, Fulham have continued to ship goals. Only Bournemouth (eight) have shipped more goals than the Cottagers’ seven over the last three gameweeks, and no team has allowed opponents more SoT than Fulham’s 25. Our Fix Algorithm backs Chicharito to breach the Cottagers’ defence, with a point score of 4.6.

Matt Doherty (BOU)

Despite failing to keep a clean sheet, Doherty has notched 19 points across the last three gameweeks, with two goals and an assist. No defender has scored more goals than the Irishman’s three, and his total of six FPL involvements can be beaten only by Alonso (eight). Over the last six gameweeks, only Chambers (five) has fired more SoT than Doherty’s four, and only Bellerin (24), Kolasinac (31) and Morrison (35) have more penalty box touches than the Irishman’s 18. He has also created eight chances during this period, trailing only Kolasinac (12) and Digne (17). Wolves have only conceded six ‘big chances’ in this time, the lowest in the league, suggesting their defence is still capable of keeping clean sheets. Only Burnley (35) have taken fewer SiB than Bournemouth’s 36 over the last six weeks, indicating that the Cherries have lost a bit of their attacking impetus after a flying start. Our Fix Algorithm predicts a 29% probability of a clean sheet for Wolves, and a point score of 4.1 for Doherty.