17 Dec.

GW17 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as FPL involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

The xFPL table this week clearly highlights why this was a low scoring gameweek – only Hazard, Jiménez and Richarlison have over 20% live team ownership from the top 12 xFPL performers, and only the Belgian posted a double digit xFPL score. Firmino, Pereyra, Ings and Kamara fired in the most SoT (three), with the Brazilian attempting a whopping nine shots. Kane and Aubameyang both disappointed their captaincy backers, with xFPL scores of 3.1 and 5.3 respectively. Salah did not attempt a single shot in the box (SiB), but attempted three assists, leading to a xFPL score of 4.0. Sané’s xFPL score of 6.2 indicates that he over-performed on this occasion, as he attempted only three assists, two of which were converted, and did not manage a single shot on target. No player attempted more assists than Robertson’s four, and the Scot also took a SiB, leading to a xFPL score of 4.5.


2. Is Sané going under the radar?

Sané started his fifth straight game since the injury to Mendy, with Mahrez preferred to Sterling against Everton. The two are compared over the last four weeks using our Fix Heatmaps feature. In terms of raw numbers, Sané beats Sterling for shots, SiB, SoT, attempted assists and ‘big chances’ created. This could partly be put down to the German playing 297 minutes to Sterling’s 204, so a look at the average attacking stats is warranted. Sterling seems to be more of a goal scorer and Sané a creator. Sterling beats Sané in the averages for expected goals, shots, SiB and SoT, but the German wins the assist battle. The numbers imply that Sterling is the more explosive option, but prone to rotation, whereas Sané represents a more consistent alternative. Owning at least one seems advisable given Man. City’s attacking stats and run of fixtures, and the League cup lineups against Leicester may give some clue towards Pep’s rotation policy over the congested festive period.


3. Battle of the big hitters part 2

Hazard was the pick of the expensive options this week scoring 13 points, nearly more than the other four combined (15) and his competitors are put under the microscope again using our Fix Comparison Matrix. Kane was the most backed for captaincy against a struggling Burnley outfit, and his numbers are worrying. He attempted just two shots, none of which found the target, and was fortunate to have his only attempted assist converted. Given that no side has allowed opponents more shots than the Clarets, this is a huge red flag for his owners, but given their midweek exertions against Barcelona, and the benching of Eriksen and Son, patience is advised with the Englishman. Salah blanked after his hattrick in gameweek 16, failing to register a single shot on target, and given that he plays Wolves, Newcastle, Arsenal and Man. City in his next four, owners should perhaps be looking elsewhere in the short term as he is only a captain option in one of those fixtures. Aubameyang posted the best underlying numbers of the lot, with two SoT and two attempted assists, suggesting that he still presents a great captain option home to Burnley in gameweek 18. Provided he shakes off his injury, Hazard appears to be an excellent asset going forward. The Belgian is now the top overall FPL points scorer, and has shown this week he can shine even in a striker role under Sarri, something which killed his output under Conte.


Fantasy Football Fix