Blog

31 Dec.

GW16 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Robertson tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for the first time this season with a score of 8.8. The left-back attempted two assists, one of which was deemed a ‘big chance’. No player took more shots than H. Barnes (six), but only two of these shots were in the box which explains his low xFPL score of 4.8. Firmino, Brewster and Raphinha led the way for shots on target (SoT) with two apiece, none of them scored very highly for xFPL with scores of 5.4, 2.4 and 3.1 respectively. Salah, Cavani and Iheanacho were afforded the most ‘big chances’ (two each), the Egyptian was a popular captain pick and his xFPL score of 6.3 indicates that he was unlucky not to get any FPL returns.

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Leeds full of budget options

Leeds were the only team to score more than one goal in gameweek 16 and using the Stats Sandbox, their assets are compared over the last four gameweeks. Harrison tops the table for xFPL (21.71), the winger is joint-first for attempted assists with Klich and Rodrigo (10 each) and is second only to Bamford (2.13) for expected goals (xG) (1.40). Popular defender Dallas comes in second for xFPL (20.87), no Leeds player has accumulated more FPL points (30) than the right-back over the last four gameweeks, while only Rodrigo (nine), Bamford (12) and Raphinha (14) have taken more shots than his seven. Despite being top for shots (14) and attempted assists (10), Raphinha is ranked just seventh for xFPL (15.80)

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Defences analysed

Eight teams out of a possible sixteen kept clean sheets in gameweek 16 and using the Stats Sandbox team stats feature, the defensive numbers are analysed over the last six gameweeks. Man. City have conceded the fewest shots in the box (SiB) (26) and lead the way for expected clean sheets (xCS) (3.58) too. Despite missing personnel in defence, Liverpool continue to post impressive numbers. Only Liverpool (29) have conceded fewer SiB (26) than Man. City and the Champions have played a game more. At the other end of the table, Leeds (70), West Brom (68) and Burnley (57) have conceded the most SiB over the last six matches. 

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Fantasy Football Fix

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