1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as FPL involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (e.g. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring - xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Last season’s golden boot winner tops the xFPL table this week, with a score of 15.4, six points less than his Fantasy Premier League (FPL) score as he scored from all three of his shots on target (SoT), two of which were ‘big chances’. Torreira, Paterson, Jota and Mata put forth their case as cheap midfield options, after all posted good underlying stats to back up their FPL scores. The most captained player this week, Aubameyang, posted an xFPL score of 7.2, as he took four shots in the box (SiB), two of which were ‘big chances’, but failed to hit the target with any of them. Hazard had an xFPL score of only 3.3 as his only two attempted assists were converted. Rashford’s underlying numbers are impressive, with three attempted assists, and four SoT, but an xFPL score of only 7.3 because only one of those SoT was a ‘big chance’. Doherty produced another impressive attacking performance, no defender attempted more than his three SiB this week.

2. The battle of the big hitters

The prices in FPL this year has meant that most teams can afford only three out of the five big hitters – Kane, Aubameyang, Salah, Sterling and Hazard. As Salah showed this weekend, owning the right ones at the right time is the key to FPL success. The Egyptian was sold by nearly 100,000 managers over the past three gameweeks, with Hazard also sold by over half a million managers during that period. The stats are compared for the five using our comparison matrix over the last  four gameweeks. Aubameyang and Hazard look the most secure in terms of gametime as the two are the only players to play every minute over a busy period, a crucial factor. The Gabonese leads the way shooting statistics, and over the next five games faces four of the sides who are bottom for expected goals conceded (Southampton, Burnley, Brighton and Fulham). Combined with his consistent minutes, he looks like a standout option. Kane leads the way for SoT and was primarily rested against Leicester with the Barcelona tie in close proximity, and should see minimal rest over the remaining congested fixture period. He is also the highest projected scorer as per our Fix Algorithm over the next five, and looks like an almost essential purchase. This brings it down to the battle in midfield, and it is surprising that Sterling does not win in any of the metrics, with Hazard and Salah beating him in shots, SiB, SoT and chances created. However, a glance at the fixture list shows that the Egyptian faces Man. United, Wolves, Arsenal and Man. City in four of his next five, a daunting run. Sterling has a much more favourable schedule – Everton, Palace, Leicester and Southampton, two of which are home ties. Hazard has the best fixtures of the three – Brighton, Leicester, Watford, Palace, Southampton and Newcastle, all sides outside the top eight. The final spot seems to be a classic form vs fixtures dilemma, with our Fix Algorithm predicting Hazard to win out, with a projected point score of 29.8 over the next five gameweeks. 

3. Wilson replacements

With Wilson missing due to a hamstring injury, the replacement candidates are put under the microscope using the comparison matrix. Rashford has been impressive recently, with four assists and a goal in his last three matches. The Red Devils embark on a favourable run of fixtures after their gameweek 17 tie with Liverpool, with Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle their opponents till the FA cup break. He has posted impressive underlying numbers, leading the comparison for SoT and attempted assists. Despite his benching in gameweek 16, Jiménez appears to be an excellent option averaging more shots than the Englishman, and the same number of SoT. Arnautovic’s injury has opened the door for Chicharito – the Mexican leads the way for ‘big chances’ and goals, and is projected to be the highest scorer over the next five. Just like Aubameyang, the West Ham forward plays the four bottom sides for expected goals conceded over his next five. He has also shown his ability to play three games in a week, which is invaluable given the upcoming fixture congestion.