Blog

6 Dec.

GW15 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL explained : Expected goals (xG), assists (xA), involvements (xI = xG + xA) and clean sheets (xC) that were expected based on the underlying statistics (e.g. shot type and location). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected Fantasy Premier League (FPL) point score.

Couple of unfamiliar names top the xFPL table this week, with Mahrez and Doucouré posting impressive underlying stats. The Algerian attempted three assists, and took four shots in the box (SiB), three of which found the target (SoT), illustrating the wealth of options Guardiola has at his disposal. Doucouré’s numbers are perhaps slightly inflated because his initial shot was parried and the rebound scored creating two xG stats, while both came from the same initial high xG action. Kane delivered for his captaincy backers and the Englishman posted decent stats, with three SiB and a chance created. Richarlison’s numbers show an improvement with six SiB, perhaps as a result of his wing role with Tosun handed a start. Wilson and Fraser posted good Fantasy Premier League (FPL) scores, but their low xFPL of 8.0 and 7.7 respectively indicates that they were a tad fortunate, as both scored from their only SoT.

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2. Scouting the Arnautovic replacements

With Arnautovic succumbing to a hamstring injury against Cardiff that will keep him out until the new year, his replacements are put under the microscope using our Fix Comparison Matrix. Wilson’s numbers standout as he leads the way with five goals and seven SoT. A lot of managers already own Wilson, and the next best replacement appears to be Jiménez. The Mexican got on the scoresheet against Chelsea and has strong underlying numbers, with more shots and attempted assists than the Englishman and the same number of SoT. Wolves play Newcastle, Bournemouth and Fulham over the next four games all of which lie in the bottom six for SiB conceded over last four weeks.

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3. Aubameyang vs. Lacazette

Over half a million FPL managers brought in Aubameyang this gameweek but they were left disappointed as it was Lacazette who prospered, as the Gabonese was switched to a wing role upon the Frenchman’s introduction. A comparison using the Fix Heatmaps feature indicates the decision between the two is not clear cut. The cheaper Lacazette has averaged more shots, SiB, SoT and attempted assists, but Aubameyang has a better expected goals average indicating he is getting better quality chances. With Aubameyang playing 180 minutes over the last two gameweeks, and Lacazette benched in both, it will be interesting to see if the Gabonese gets his third start in seven days in gameweek 16, and whether it is alongside the Frenchman or in a lone striker role.

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