Caveat : The Captaincy picks are in the below format -

• Number one pick predicted as per the Fix Algorithm
• Differential pick (Under 25% ownership)
• 'Out there' pick (Under 15% ownership)

Sergio Agüero

Agüero has scored 47 of his 60 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points at home this season, and the visit of Southampton to the Etihad sees the Argentinian feature as the standout captain pick this week. Agüero had just three shots vs. Spurs in gameweek 10, but with the poor Wembley pitch condition seemingly having a negative effect on Man. City’s attacking play we expect to see a completely different animal on home turf. No team has scored more goals at home than the champions (18), and this output is backed up by the underlying stats – 136 shots, with 91 shots in the box (SiB) and 49 shots on target (SoT) across their five matches, which ranks first in each area. Southampton have been woeful at both ends of the pitch so far this season, failing to score in their last five matches and conceding eight in the process. The Saints have allowed opponents 50 SiB over their five away matches and only four teams have allowed more. Our Fix algorithm expects Agüero to continue his scoring streak at home, with a projected score of 7.2.

Raheem Sterling

Featuring in only 7.6% of FPL squads Sterling sits on 57 points, just three behind Agüero. He represents an explosive differential captain option for the visit of Southampton this week. The winger has registered FPL involvements in all bar two matches which he has featured this season, with three of his four goals coming at the Etihad. Despite playing only eight matches, Sterling is second only to Salah for penalty box touches this season, with 78. He’s taken six SiB in his last four matches and two of these were ‘big chances’. These may look low at first glance but it is worth remembering that two of these matches were against Liverpool and Tottenham, where the champions employed a more defensive strategy. Over the last four matches, only Burnley, Brighton and Fulham have allowed opponents more shots than the Saints’ 40, eight of which were ‘big chances’. They are particularly vulnerable on their left flank, with 14 chances conceded from that side, most likely a result of Bertrand’s marauding runs forward. Our Fix algorithm predicts Sterling to profit, with a point score of 5.5 for the English winger.

Gylfi Sigurdsson

Gamweek 11 sees a first appearance for the Icelandic international in our Top Three Captaincy Picks, and with four goals in his last four games there are plenty of reasons for his inclusion. As the table shows, no player, irrespective of position, has attempted more shots than Sigurdsson’s 17 over the last four, and only D. Silva has created more chances (15) than the Icelander’s 14. Given these stats Sigurdsson's ownership of 7.2% is surprising, and probably could be attributed to Richarlison’s presence in over 25% of squads. The Toffees have scored eight goals in their last four games which is the same number as Man. City, and only Bournemouth (9), Chelsea (10) and Arsenal (12) have scored more. They have also attempted 70 shots in this period falling just short of Man. City (71) and Chelsea (76). Brighton have defied the statistics in the last three games, keeping three clean sheets, despite allowing opponents 37 shots, the second highest in the league over that period. To put that in perspective, Burnley allowed just eight more shots, but conceded 10 goals. The Seagulls luck is bound to run out soon, and our Fix Algorithm backs Sigurdsson to be at the forefront, with a point score of 5.3.