A home encounter with a team rooted to the bottom of the table sees the Argentinian feature as the headliner for this week’s picks. Agüero has caused some frustration due to limited gametime this season only completing 90 minutes on two occasions, despite starting all 10 league matches. If we overlook this he has averaged 69.6 minutes per game at home this season and the Man. City forward has been directly involved in nine league goals (five goals, four assists) at the Etihad, which is at least three more than any other player on home turf. At home, no player has had more ‘big chances’ than his seven, or taken more than his 23 shots inside the box (SiB). As the heatmap shows, He has averaged a score of 9.4 points per game (ppg) across five home matches this season, compared to just 2.6 ppg on the road, and is yet to return less than six points at the Etihad. Only Fulham, Brighton and Burnley have conceded more SiB than Southampton (38), over the last four gameweeks, and eight of these have been ‘big chances’. Our Fix Algorithm projects the Argentinian to be the highest scorer this gameweek, with a point score of 7.2.
Chelsea displayed their title credentials and strength in squad depth after demolishing Burnley 4-0 on their own patch, even without their Belgian talisman. After missing the game last weekend Hazard is expected to recover from his back problem to face Crystal Palace in gameweek 11. 10 goal involvements by Hazard this season ranks top amongst midfielders and only Wilson has more across all positions, with 12. As the table shows, Between gameweek five and gameweek nine, the Belgium international has provided an impressive total of 15 attempted assists, which can only be beaten by Willian (17) and Sigurdsson (18). 15 SiB by Hazard during that period ranks him first amongst midfielders and only Agüero has fried more (21). While Aubameyang is the only player to be provide more FPL involvements than the Chelsea midfielder (seven to six). Over the last four gameweeks Chelsea have scored 10 league goals and no team have had more than their 19 ‘big chances’ in that time, beating Bournemouth’s 14 and Man. City’s 13. Palace’s defence has been ropey of late, conceding seven goals in their last four games, and they have also conceded twice in two of their last three away trips. Only Man. City (18) have scored more goals than Chelsea (12) on home turf, and our Fix Algorithm backs Hazard to put the Eagles to the sword with a point score of 6.4.
Despite a Zaza impersonation last gameweek, Paul Pogba was directly involved in both of Man. United’s goals during the win over Everton last gameweek, scoring the rebound to his own missed penalty before teeing up Martial for the second. That’s now three assists for the French international this season, with them coming in the last five matches. During that period (last five gameweeks), only Agüero (22) has fired off more than Pogba’s 18 goal attempts, while only Mahrez has matched his 10 shots on target (SoT) and no player has taken more than the pair. Man. United are unbeaten in their last three Premier League matches scoring seven goals over that period and only Chelsea (nine) and Arsenal (10) have managed more. 11 ‘big chances’ by Mourinho’s side, during that same spell ranks joint-second in the league, beaten only by Chelsea, with 15. The Cherries have posted good defensive numbers this season with 70 SiB conceded, ninth best in the league, as well as only nine ‘big chances’, just one fewer than Liverpool and four fewer than Man. City. However, they have only played Chelsea from the ‘top six’ so these numbers could be flattering a team known for their expansive attacking style rather than a watertight defence. Martial, has emerged as an alternative with five FPL involvements in the last four gameweeks, however, our Fix algorithm is currently backing Pogba to score more points with a score of 4.4.
Not many would have expected a Bournemouth striker to be the top scoring forward in FPL with over a quarter of the season gone, but the English striker has defied expectations and is currently enjoying his best season. The second most transferred in player this week, Wilson scored twice during Bournemouth’s 3-0 win over Fulham last weekend registering a total of five SiB and three ‘big chances’, and no forward managed more for either statistic. His total of 12 FPL involvements this season ranks first amongst all players, beating Agüero and Hazard, who both have 10, and Salah with nine. No player has been involved in more ‘big chances’ than Wilson’s 13 over the season, while only Salah (27) and Agüero (36) have taken more than his 26 SiB. Over the last three Gameweeks, Wilson remains joint top for big chances (5) but he’s also created more big chances (3) than any other forward in that time. 19 goals scored by Bournemouth this season ranks 5th highest in the Premier League, while only Man City (38) have had more big chances than Eddie Howe’s side (33). With only one clean sheet this season, the Man. United defence has been one of the most porous in the league. Over the last four matches the Red Devils have allowed opponents 56 shots on goal, the sixth worst in the league, and 10 ‘big chances’, only behind Arsenal (13) and Burnley (15). They have also allowed 23 SoT, with only Burnley and Brighton allowing more. With nine goals conceded in their five away games already, our Fix Algorithm backs Wilson to get attacking returns against the Red Devils with a point score of 4.2.
The second highest point scorer in FPL, and 15 points clear of the next best defender, Alonso is the gift that keeps on giving. Chelsea’s 4-0 win over Burnley in gameweek 10 saw Marcos Alonso get back amongst the points, returning his sixth assist of the season and while keeping a fifth clean sheet. The Spaniard provided three attempted assists during the game and Bertrand was the only defender to produce more in gameweek 10, with five. Alonso has now amassed a total of seven FPL involvements, beating Mendy’s six, Holebas’ five and Trippier’s four while no defender has contributed to more goals during this campaign. Seven goals conceded by Chelsea this season ranks third best in the league, bettered only by Liverpool, with four, and Man. City, with three. This is backed up by their defensive numbers with the Blues conceding only 54 SiB, the fourth best in the league. Their backline is unlikely to be troubled by a Palace team that has scored only seven goals so far, the fourth lowest in the league. Our Fix Algorithm backs Alonso with a projected score of 5.2, with a high probability of a clean sheet this week.
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