1. xFPL review

xFPL explained : Expected goals (xG), assists (xA), involvements (xI = xG + xA) and clean sheets (xC) that were expected based on the underlying statistics (e.g. shot type and location). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected Fantasy Premier League (FPL) point score.

A look at the xFPL table sees the Man. City duo Sterling and Agüero posting impressive underlying stats to backup their Fantasy Premier League (FPL) hauls, with Sterling showing a clinical edge that has often been missing in his game. Kane’s numbers are staggering, with eight shots , five of which were in the box (SiB), and six shots on target (SoT) with two of them being ‘big chances’. The forward posted an xFPL score of 14.4 vs. his FPL score of 7, and these were his best underlying stats of the season so far, indicating that Kane might be getting back to his best after a sluggish start to the season. Martial continues to post impressive underlying numbers to add to his FPL scores and he is now looking like a nailed on figure in the Man. United starting line-up, unlike previous seasons.

2. Sterling vs. Aguero

Priced similarly to Agüero in FPL, Sterling now has four FPL points more than the Argentinian, but only an 8% ownership compared to Agüero’s 52%. With the budget forwards like Wilson, Arnautovic and Jiménez delivering, several managers are considering abandoning Agüero and going with a heavier midfield with cheap strikers up top. The two are compared using the Fix Heatmaps feature and there is a clear winner. Agüero has had 51 shots vs. Sterling’s 24, 39 SiB vs. 18, and four more SoT than the English winger. The only stat in which Sterling beats Agüero is superior chance creation, which is natural given his wide role. The Argentinian is also on penalty duties and the recent form (or lack of) from Jesus means that he has less competition for his starting spot than Sterling, who has able replacements in Mahrez, Bernardo and Sané. Sterling’s numbers are still very impressive, and managers should endeavour to get Sterling alongside Agüero in their FPL squads,  not at the Argentinian’s expense.

3. Budget forwards deliver

With Wilson, Jiménez, Ings and Arnautovic all getting on the scoresheet, budget forwards once again displayed their value for money this gameweek. The four are compared using our Comparison Matrix, and it is worth remembering that the first three had a difficult fixture against a ‘top six’ team. Wilson continues to show his all-round appeal, with three attempted assists to add to his two SoT, but in general all four posted great underlying stats. With prices ranging from 5.5 to 7.1, all four are options in their own right given the various price points, and can enable upgrades elsewhere in your squad. Our Fix Algorithm expects Arnautovic to be the pick of the bunch going forward, with a projected score of 20.6 over the next five gameweeks. Partly down to a glorious fixture run that sees them play only Man. City from the ‘top six’ over the next eight gameweeks.