Blog

15 Sept.

GW1 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

The gameweek’s highest scorer Salah tops the Custom Stats xFPL table this week with a score of 15.5. The Egyptian took a whopping eight shots in the box (SiB) and landed three shots on target (SoT) while attempting four assists as well. Vardy notched an xFPL score of 11.3 but the two penalties he took were his only two SiB. James Rodriguez and Fredericks led the way for creativity with five attempted assists apiece. Despite an impressive performance, the Columbian notched an xFPL score of only 4.5 as just one of his attempted assists was a ‘big chance’ created. Chelsea’s new signing Werner took five SiB with only Salah (eight) taking more but none of these was a ‘big chance’ which explains the German’s low xFPL score of 3.6.

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2. Teams to watch – Everton

The Toffees put in a strong display with a win against Spurs on the opening day and with the signings of Allan, Doucoure and James Rodriguez, they look a much stronger team overall than last season.  Their assets are put under the microscope using the Stats Sandbox and Digne comes out on top in terms of xFPL score (6.51). The full-back had his only attempted assist converted and put in more crosses (seven) than any other Everton asset. Richarlison took a whopping seven shots as he exploited the space behind Doherty. The Brazilian wins out on expected goals (xG) (0.77) by some margin and looks to have significantly more goal threat than Calvert-Lewin who only managed two shots. James Rodriguez was the creative lynchpin with five attempted assists. He also took three shots, two of which were in the box. These numbers illustrate the Columbian’s potential this season, with such a high involvement in Everton’s attack, his ceiling for points is potentially very high.

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3. Budget defenders prosper

Budget defenders James, Gabriel and Saiss got on the scoresheet this gameweek, proving that there is plenty of value in budget defenders this season. A look at the Stats Sandbox for defenders up to 5.0 shows Fredericks led the way for attempted assists (five) with Lewis (three) in second but Lamptey (two) really caught the eye. The Brighton defender leads the way for expected assists (xA) (0.51) amongst defenders in this price bracket with the popular Walker-Peters coming in fourth (0.14). In terms of goal threat, Saiss led the way for shots (three) with no other defender managing more than one. James scored from his only shot and had one of his two attempted assists converted, outperforming his xFPL score of 6.53 by some margin. 

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