Forwards score the goals that drive FPL returns, so getting your striker picks right could be crucial in the final stretch of the season — especially for managers preparing to play their FPL Wildcard.
After analysing defenders and midfielders, this final positional review looks at forwards. We break down the top-performing options so far and identify the best picks for the run-in — making this essential research for anyone looking to optimise their FPL Wildcard and maximise points.
Expect expert insights, key stats, and strategic tips to help you gain an edge and finish the season strongly.
As shown in our Opta Stats Sandbox tool below, Haaland (192.60) leads all forwards for xFPL this season, despite his recent drop off. The Norwegian international is top for goals (22), shots (102), shots on target (49), 'big chances' (41) and 'Expected Goals' (xG) (22.26).
Thiago (171.35) is in second, the 24-year-old has scored just three goals fewer than Haaland (19) and is second for 'big chances' (36) and xG (36) as well.
The drop off to third-placed João Pedro (151.18) is significant. The Brazilian international has been afforded 12 fewer 'big chances' (24) than Thiago and has registered just 13.87 xG so far.
Bowen is fourth for xFPL despite scoring just eight goals. The England international is ranked as low as 23rd for 'big chances' (eight) and 15th for xG (7.36) but is the top forward for attempted assists (32) and 'Expected Assists' (xA) (5.42).
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA), which combine to form expected FPL involvements (xG + xA = xI), along with expected clean sheets (xCS). These values are based on underlying statistics — for example, shot type and location determine the probability of scoring, which contributes to xG. xFPL then combines these metrics, factoring in appearance and bonus points to produce an overall expected FPL point score.
As shown in our Opta Stats Sandbox image below, Haaland is in a league of his own when it comes to shot volume with 91 shots in the box, with Thiago (67) in second.
João Pedro (55) is in third but Watkins, Evanilson, Raúl and Calvert-Lewin (53 each) are close behind, which just illustrates how clear Haaland and Thiago are of the rest of the pack.
However, the Chelsea forward is ranked third for both 'big chances' (24) and xG (13.87). With the Blues' elimination from the Champions League his minutes should be secure going forward and he appears to be the third best forward pick.
As the below image from our Predicted Lineups feature shows, he is rated at 97% to start against Man City in Gameweek 32.
Evanilson has racked up the lowest xG (9.12) of the aforementioned quartet, with Calvert-Lewin's spot-kick duties pushing him up to 13.04.
Igor Jesus' numbers are interesting, the forward has scored just three goals from 50 shots in the box (eighth). But he has been afforded just four 'big chances' and registered an xG of just 3.84.
Meanwhile, the popular Ekitiké is ranked fourth for shots (65), seventh for 'big chances' (19) and seventh for xG (11.49). As the above image from our Player Heatmaps feature shows, he averages 5.3 FPL points in home games versus just 3.5 away.
Bowen is ranked third for shots (67), but as low as 10th for shots in the box (49) with several of his efforts arriving from range, as shown in the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature.
Welbeck (1826) and Šeško (1332) have played limited minutes but have scored 21 goals between them. They have been afforded 17 'big chances' each and have registered a similar xG tally (9.88 vs 9.14).
As shown in our Opta Stats Sandbox image below, João Pedro (nine) is top for FPL assists amongst forwards. But it is interesting to note that in terms of Opta assists, he has registered only five. The Brazilian international is second for attempted assists (28) and third for both 'big chances' created (six) and xA (3.56).
Haaland surprisingly is second for FPL assists (seven), 'big chances' created (eight) and xA (4.18) with Guardiola tweaking his formation after the signing of Semenyo in the January transfer window.
Bowen is top for attempted assists (32), 'big chances' created (nine) and xA (5.42). As shown in our Opta Stats Sandbox image below, he is top amongst forwards for Defensive Contributions (DEFCON) (232), significantly ahead of second-placed Thiago (174).
Meanwhile, Thiago has just one FPL assist but has been unlucky, the 24-year-old is ranked fourth for 'big chances' created (five) and fourth for xA (3.47).
In comparison, Ekitiké has four FPL assists from just three 'big chances' created and 3.09 xA.
As shown in the below image from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings, Brighton are top for 'Attack Difficulty' over the rest of the season which should put Welbeck firmly on the radar.
Calvert-Lewin should continue to be the budget forward of choice, the 29-year-old plays Wolves, Burnley and Spurs in three of the next five games.
Arsenal play three of their next four games at the Emirates but with Havertz, Gyökeres and Jesus all available to Arteta, rotation is likely for the Gunners.
Forest's next two fixtures look obliging but as mentioned earlier, Igor Jesus' numbers do not inspire confidence.
Man. Utd. also play three of their next four games at home, Mbeumo's recent profligacy in front of goal could mean more minutes for Šeško.
FPL managers holding Thiago should keep the faith, with the Bees playing Everton, Fulham and West Ham at the G-Tech over the next four fixtures.
As the below image from our Predicted Points & Stats tool shows, Haaland (38.9) is projected to be the top scoring striker for the remainder of the season.
Thiago (31.9) and Bowen (30.3) round off the top three, both forwards fixtures primarily appeal over the next four Gameweeks before tailing off towards the final three.
It is the reverse for João Pedro, Chelsea play Man. City, Man. Utd. and Brighton over the next three.
There is not much to split budget forwards Calvert-Lewin (27.5) and Welbeck (27.3) with both forwards offering excellent value.
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