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The Third Liverpool spot - Jota or Robertson?

28 Jan. 2022

Salah is expected back from the African Cup of Nations by gameweek 24 and managers with Alexander-Arnold and Jota now have a decision to make on whether to keep faith in the Portugal international or free up the third Liverpool spot to bring in the in-form Robertson. In this blog, their numbers are compared over the last nine gameweeks using the Fix Heatmaps feature.

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Robertson has averaged an impressive 7.8 points per game over the last eight gameweeks compared to just 4.1 for Jota. Despite playing 86 fewer minutes, the Scottish full-back has racked up 14 more points.

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It is a tad difficult to compare the Touch Maps for the two players since they play different positions but what stands out immediately is how many touches Robertson gets in the attacking half of the pitch. The Scot spends more time in the opponent's half than his own and should perhaps be considered more of a left-winger than a traditional defender. Jota naturally has benefited from Firmino's absence and played in a central role but as we have seen in the last couple of weeks, he is not as effective out wide with the Brazilian leading the line.

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xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.


The above image from the Stats Sandbox shows that Robertson was ranked second (44.1) amongst Liverpool players for xFPL with Jota not far behind in fourth (42.7). The xFPL numbers perhaps give the fairest comparison across different positions as it takes into account 'Expected Clean Sheets' (xC) as well. This would indicate that if Jota keeps starting matches, he has similar potential for points as Robertson but minutes are very likely going to be an issue with Liverpool’s famed trio of Mané, Salah and Firmino all available for selection.

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With both players playing different positions, comparing their numbers is difficult as Jota naturally shows more goal threat playing as a forward. His numbers are impressive with 0.65 xG per game and an average of 3.74 shots.

Robertson also posts great numbers with 2.33 attempted assists and 0.5 'big chances' created per game. Only Alexander-Arnold (20) attempted more assists than Robertson (14) amongst defenders over the aforementioned nine gameweek period.

With Jota's security of starts and minutes under question, Robertson certainly has the numbers to justify his inclusion over Jota as the third Liverpool pick.

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