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15 Oct.

GW9 Top Three Captaincy Picks

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

Caveat - Picks are in below format

  1. No.1 predicted by Fix
  2. Alternative high-ownership option. Over 20%
  3. Differential option. Under 20%

Harry Kane (WAT)

A home fixture against bottom-placed Watford sees Kane feature as the top algorithm pick this week. Only Pukki (six), Aubameyang (seven), Abraham and Agüero (both eight) have scored more goals than Kane’s five this season amongst forwards and only the same four have taken more shots than his 24. He has landed nine shots on target (SoT) with only five forwards managing more. The England forward has also attempted six assists, indicating that he is fulfilling his creative duties. Although Spurs sit ninth in the table with just 11 points, scoring goals has not been a problem. Only Chelsea (18), Liverpool (20) and Man. City (27) have scored more goals than their 14 and only six teams have landed more than their 35 SoT. Spurs could have hardly asked for more obliging opponents to get back on track after their loss to Brighton. The Hornets have shipped in 20 goals this season, a total only beaten by Norwich (21), while Arsenal (45), Spurs (50), and Norwich (55) are the only teams to have allowed opponents more SoT than their 40. They are also third-worst for ‘big chances’ conceded with 23. Our Fix Algorithm backs Kane to get on the scoresheet with a point score of 7.2.

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Sergio Agüero (cpl)

Well-rested over the international break, Agüero should be fit and firing for Man. City’s visit to Selhurst Park as the defending Champions look to bounce back from their defeat to Wolves in gameweek eight. As the Stats Sandbox shows, no player has scored more than Agüero’s eight goals this season or taken more shots than his 30. He has been afforded 11 ‘big chances’, highest amongst forwards and also leads the way for shots in the box (SiB) with 26. He has also created 10 chances and only five forwards have fared better. Man. City are top for goals (27), shots (168), SiB (117), SoT (60) and ‘big chances’ (37) and although Palace have conceded only one goal at home so far this season, it is hard to see them keeping the defending Champions’ free flowing attack at bay. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 5.8 for Agüero.

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Callum Wilson (NOR)

C. Wilson was sidelined for England’s first game over the international break with illness but came off the bench in their second game against Bulgaria. The forward has enjoyed a great campaign so far with five goals and three assists in eight matches and has only failed to notch attacking returns in one gameweek (gameweek eight vs. Arsenal). Although C. Wilson’s shot volume is unimpressive with just 12 SiB, the Interactive shot graph below shows that he has been afforded 10 ‘big chances’, and only Agüero has managed more amongst forwards. What is also impressive is that 11 of his 12 SiB have been on target, and his shot conversion rate of 78.6% is highest amongst forwards to have played over 600 minutes. He has also created 11 chances with only Deulofeu (14) managing more. The Cherries have scored 13 goals this campaign and have failed to score in only one match. Although they have only taken 85 shots, they have created 19 ‘big chances’ and only Chelsea (26), Liverpool (29) and Man. City (37) have fared better. However, the primary reason for C. Wilson’s inclusion is Norwich’s abysmal defence. The Canaries have conceded 21 goals this season and are one of only two teams to keep a clean sheet. No team has allowed opponents more SiB (97) or SoT (55) and only West Ham (26) have conceded more ‘big chances’ than their 24. Our Fix Algorithm backs C. Wilson to get attacking returns with a point score of 6.5. 


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