7 Oct.

GW8 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL explained

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Villa’s record signing Wesley tops the xFPL table this week with a score of 15.0, one of the highest of the season so far. The Brazilian really should have had a hattrick, seeing his penalty saved by McGovern. No player took more than his six shots in the box (SiB) or landed more shots on target (SoT) than his five and he also tops the table for ‘big chances’ with four. Mane once again outshone Salah with an xFPL score of 10.1 to 8.1, landing an additional SoT and a ‘big chance’ over the Egyptian. Connolly (a forward, priced at just 4.5) looks great value if he can cement his place in Brighton's first 11. The Irishman tested the keeper with three out of his six shots and also attempted two assists, notching an xFPL score of 9.7. While Man United's A. Young was the week’s most creative player with six attempted assists. A mention must go to Alexander-Arnold once again, the Englishman attempted five assists, two of which were ‘big chances’ and notched an xFPL score of 9.7.


2. Who to invest in at Leicester

The Foxes almost came away from Anfield with a point courtesy of Maddison’s goal and the Foxes now embark on a fixture run that sees them play only Arsenal from the ‘top six’ sides in their next eight matches. Their assets are put under the microscope using the Stats Sandbox feature, and the numbers are filtered to show 'average per game' to account for any matches missed, like in the case of Maddison. At 3.0 shots per match, Maddison looks great value at 7.1, and an average of 1.43 SiB indicates these are not speculative efforts. Vardy does beat him for average SoT 0.88 to 0.57 but only marginally  when it comes to expected goals (xG), 0.25 to 0.24. Maddison leads the way in the creative statistics with an average of 1.57 chances created per match and has the highest expected assists (xA) at 0.18. These numbers are even more impressive considering the fact he missed the Newcastle match, where chances and shots were aplenty for his teammates. 


3. Is the Pukki party over?

Pukki was the toast of the FPL community after a storming start to the season where he notched 37 points in his first four matches, at an average of 9.3 points per game (PPG). The next four matches saw him notch just 17 points at an average of 4.3 PPG. Using the Fix Heatmaps feature, his underlying statistics are compared for the two periods. His shot volume has decreased from 14 to 10, but what is really alarming is the fact he has only landed four SoT in the second period compared to the 11 earlier in the season. His SiB is down as well from 13 to eight but what is interesting is that he has attempted nearly double the amount of assists (four vs seven) which might indicate that he is having to play more of a creative role due to the attention he is receiving from opposition defenders now. An average of one SoT per game is poor and with Norwich seemingly losing some of their early season momentum, it might be time for managers to look elsewhere with assets such as Abraham, Haller and Wilson delivering regularly. 


Fantasy Football Fix