Blog

23 Sept.

GW6 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Three Man. City attacking assets top the xFPL table this week with the Belgian wizard De Bruyne coming out on top with an xFPL score of 14.1. No player attempted more assists than his eight and four of these were ‘big chances’. McGinn, Kane and B. Silva each landed four SoT notching xFPL scores of 9.4, 6.6 and 11.6 with the Villa man’s statistics particularly impressive given his price-tag. Ward-Prowse and Maupay topped the table for shots with seven apiece. The Saints’ man registered an xFPL score of 10.0 vs Maupay’s 4.7. Aguero’s owners can consider themselves unlucky with just a nine point FPL return, the Argentine was afforded five ‘big chances’, more than any player this gameweek but only one of his six shots were on target. He registered an xFPL score of 13.9 as he also created two ‘big chances’ and really should have had more FPL returns.

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2. 'We need to talk about Kevin'

De Bruyne was at his imperious best in Man. City’s rout of Watford and the Belgian has notched FPL returns in every game he has started this season. Just one point behind Aguero in the overall FPL standings, with two goals and nine assists in six appearances he is making a mockery of his 9.9 price-tag. His underlying statistics are nothing short of incredible. As the Stats Sandbox feature shows, no player has registered more assists than his seven and he is also top for chances created with 27. What is even more impressive is that unlike previous campaigns, he is shooting a lot. Only seven midfielders have taken more shots than his 16, and he is just one behind Salah who has taken 17. He trails only Aguero for xFPL points 42.49 versus 43.30 and is some way ahead of Sterling who has 35.17. Given he is still over 2m cheaper than the other two, he is perhaps the first ‘essential’ FPL asset of the season.

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3. Hammers going under the radar

West Ham put in an impressive display against Man. United in gameweek six, winning 2-0 and keeping their third consecutive clean sheet this season. Since their loss to Man. City in gameweek one, the Hammers have picked up 11 points and currently sit at fifth in the table, just two points behind the defending Champions. With a kind fixture run coming up, investment in an improving West Ham outfit seems a good idea and their assets are compared using the Stats Sandbox feature once again. Although Haller tops the xFPL numbers with a score of 27.98, it is interesting that three of the next four (Diop, Fabianski and Fredericks) are defensive assets which indicates that they are a much more resilient outfit in defence this year and have deserved their clean sheets. Lanzini tops the chances created with 15 but an injury to the Argentine means the onus now falls on Anderson who has nine. The Brazilian leads the way for expected assists (xA) with 1.58 and is sixth overall for xFPL (19.95) which indicates that he might be the best midfield option from their lot. Haller has landed only six SoT so far and managers would probably want to see more from the Frenchman before committing a forward slot as the Hammers seem to have given up some attacking flair for defensive solidity this season. 

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