17 Sept.

GW5 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Pukki tops the xFPL table with a score of 10.7 this week despite landing just one shot on target (SoT) as two of his three shots in the box (SiB) were deemed ‘big chances’ and he also created a ‘big chance’ for Cantwell. The Finn continues to be highly rated by the Fix Algorithm and you can see his detailed statistics for this game using the Player Performance Report feature. The gameweek’s highest scorer Son notches an xFPL score of only 7.6 as none of his five shots were deemed a ‘big chance’. No player created more chances than Deulofeu’s eight or took more shots than his seven with the Spaniard registering an xFPL score of 7.7. Alexander-Arnold’s numbers are worth mentioning; the right-back created seven chances and landed two SoT with his 8.9 xFPL score indicating he was very unlucky not to notch attacking returns. One of the week’s most popular bandwagons as the per the Transfer Trends feature, Abraham, notches an xFPL score of only 8.4 as he scored from three of his four SoT, two of which were ‘big chances’.


2. Lampard’s kids are alright

Chelsea scored the most goals over the weekend, putting five past Wolves and all three of their scorers were academy graduates. Priced kindly due to their lack of top flight experience, Abraham and Mount are fast becoming popular picks and the two are compared using the Fix Heatmaps feature. The shot map indicates that many of Mount’s efforts are from range whereas 13 of Abraham’s 15 shots were in the box. Surprisingly, even though Mount has attempted 11 assists to Abraham’s six, the forward beats him for expected assists 0.81 to 0.66. Overall, Abraham is the clear winner in the comparison, especially given the fact that he has played a game less but it is worth mentioning that he costs 0.8 more and is more prone to the early sub and rotation than Mount. However, both appear to be excellent value and are great acquisitions for your squad.


3. Salah vs Mané

Mané outscored Salah for the second week running and in keeping with the theme of team-mate comparisons for this week’s blog, the two FPL stalwarts are put under the microscope using the Fix Heatmaps feature. Unlike the Chelsea comparison, this one is less clear-cut. Both have scored the same number of goals and Mané has created just one more chance than Salah. Their average expected goals are also similar, with Salah narrowly winning 0.61 to 0.50. The Egyptian wins out when it comes to shots, with 3.49 per game but Mané wins the average SoT battle with 1.50. The numbers indicate that there is really nothing to separate the two. Salah’s penalty duties make him a more attractive captain pick but Mané owners have plenty of reason for optimism as well. It seems the best strategy is to pick one and stick with it, as they should score similarly over the long term and shuffling between the two could lead to missing one of their the big hauls.


Fantasy Football Fix