20 May

GW37 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Jorginho tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 37 with a score of 9.6. The Italian converted his penalty and also attempted two assists as well. No player took more shots (six) or landed more shots on target (SoT) (four) than B. Fernandes, only one of these attempts was in the box which explains his low xFPL score of 4.4. Salah was unfortunate not to register any returns, the Egyptian took four shots in the box (SiB), two of which were ‘big chances’ and notched an xFPL score of 9.2. No defender created more chances than Robertson (four), the Scotsman also took one SiB, leading to a 9.1 xFPL score.


2. Antonio vs Bamford

Antonio and Bamford both found the back of the net in gameweek 37 and are popular targets going into the final gameweek. Using the Fix Heatmaps feature, their numbers are compared for the last four gameweeks. Antonio wins for goals (three vs two), expected goals (2.29 vs 1.50) and shots (14 vs six) but Bamford has landed double the SoT (three vs six). It is pretty close in terms of creativity as well, with Antonio (four) creating just one more chance than Bamford (three). The Hammers’ man appears to be the better option based on this data but Bamford is an excellent alternative.


3. Opposition to target on the final day

Gameweek 38 has traditionally seen loads of goals flying in and using the Stats Sandbox for the last four gameweeks, the most porous teams are identified. Looking at expected goals conceded (xGC), Southampton (8.19), Sheff. Utd (7.75), Burnley (7.64) and West Brom (7.21) look like the teams to target. No team has allowed opponents more shots than West Brom (82) while only Villa (51) have allowed more SiB than the Baggies’ 50. Palace have conceded the most goals (10) and are ranked 15th for xGC (6.48). Based on the defensive data, Liverpool, Leeds and West Ham attackers should find plenty of opportunities to score. 


Fantasy Football Fix