7 May

GW37 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Arnautovic tops the xFPL table this week with a score of 12.3 in an otherwise low scoring week, with only Fraser from the top five xFPL performers owned by over 20% of teams. The Austrian took six shots, second only to Lacazette this week and registered two ‘big chances’. No play fired more shots on target (SoT) than Rondon’s four as the Venezuelan notched a xFPL score of 6.2.  Fraser was the most creative player on show with a whopping nine attempted assists, and he eventually got his reward with the assist for Ake’s goal. He also leads the way for ‘big chances’ created this weekend, with three. Pogba’s struggles continued as he managed just one shot in the box (SiB) and two attempted assists, leading to a low xFPL score of 3.4. Aguero also had a poor game, he managed just two SoT with a xFPL score of just 2.8.


2. The Son dilemma

Son’s dismissal for shoving Lerma means that the Korean is suspended for the final game of the season, and his replacements are put under the scanner using the xFPL table for midfielders at 8.5 or under for the last four gameweeks. Jota tops the table, but with seventh placed sealed and a difficult away trip to Anfield, he is perhaps not the best candidate. Fraser and Redmond post impressive underlying numbers and free up cash for another punt elsewhere. B. Silva and Moura both have something to play for going into the final week, and in absence of first choice key men have stepped up to the plate for their teams recently. Pogba does come in at fourth in the table but his xFPL score is heavily inflated by his two penalties against West Ham.


3. A forward punt

Goals are usually on the menu in the final gameweek, and the forward options at 10m or under are compared using the xFPL table for the last four gameweeks. Although he failed to score against Spurs’ nine men, no forward has managed more goal involvements than Wilson’s six over the aforementioned period. He also leads the way for SoT (six) and only Long (six) registered more ‘big chances’ than his five. Vardy’s numbers are also impressive and with Chelsea already having secured a Champions League spot, the Foxes’ last home game could be an open one. Newcastle strikers also appear to be a decent punt with a fixture against Fulham, and Perez has notched five goal involvements in the last four gameweeks. Arnautovic is also worth a look as Watford will have one eye on the cup final and the Austrian will be looking to sign off in style.


Fantasy Football Fix