29 April

GW36 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Wilson tops the xFPL table this week with a xFPL score of 15.9 as Bournemouth drew 3-3 at St. Marys with Wilson landing all three of his shots on target, all of which were ‘big chances’. Vardy continued his good form, taking more shots in the box (SiB) than any player this week with seven. B. Silva was the most creative player on show, with five attempted assists and the Portuguese also landed two SoT, highlighting his potential in Man. City’s final two fixtures. Salah posts very impressive underlying numbers as well, with four attempted assists and a whopping eight shots, three of which found the target.


2. The Battle for top four continues

None of the teams in contention for the third and fourth Champions league spots managed to register a win this weekend and only five points separate sixth place Man. Utd from third placed Tottenham. Using the xFPL Custom Stats table for the last four gameweeks, the assets from these teams are compared and Hazard stands out amongst the competition. The Belgian leads the way for attempted assists (12), SiB (10), SoT (six) and ‘big chances’ (three), which explains his position at the top of the xFPL table. Pogba’s numbers are greatly boosted by the high xFPL scores for his two penalties, in fact the Frenchman has taken only five SiB in the last four matches and attempted only seven assists. Son and Eriksen appear to be the next best options, but Spurs’ league form has been affected by their Champions League exertions. Arsenal’s assets have been performing poorly and again with European commitments leading to reduced minutes for many of their assets, including Aubameyang, investment in the Gunners cannot be recommended.


3. The Vardy party continues

Vardy took his total to six goals in the last six gameweeks, and no forward has landed more SoT (10) or registered more ‘big chances’ than his nine over this period. In fact, since Rodgers’ appointment in gameweek 29, the Englishman has notched 11 FPL involvements (nine goals and two assists) over eight gameweeks. As the Fix Heatmap shows, he has an expected goals output of 0.91 a game, to put that in context, the top scoring forward in the game Aguero averaged just 0.42 over the same period. With an outside shot for the golden boot, Vardy could still have an impact on both the league title and Champions league positions with Man. City and Chelsea his final two opponents.


Fantasy Football Fix