1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Pogba tops the xFPL table this week with a score of 15.3, and he scored both his penalty attempts. The Frenchman also took two additional shots in the box (SiB) and attempted one assist. De Bruyne showed signs that he is back to his best as he attempted six assists, two of which were ‘big chances’, notching a xFPL score of 11.1. No player landed more shots on target (SoT) than Moura’s four, as the Brazilian scored a hattrick against Huddersfield. His xFPL score of 7.5 is far lower than his Fantasy Premier League (FPL) score of 21 as none of these attempts were deemed ‘big chances’. Both Fraser and Wilson also posted low xFPL scores of 7.2 and 6.7 respectively as they only attempted one shot apiece.

2. Deeney/Murray replacements under the scanner

Watford captain Deeney was sent off against Arsenal on Monday night, and with the skipper suspended for the Hornets’ next three matches his potential replacements are put under the scanner using the Fix Comparison Matrix. Jiménez is not included as he is by some distance the standout replacement if you do not own him already. Although Wilson has only one fixture this week compared to the others, the Englishman’s statistics are very impressive, topping both the xFPL and SoT metrics. He plays Fulham this week, and looks to be a great option. Ings has the highest projected score of the lot, but his minutes are a concern as Hasenhüttl may look to manage his game-time after recent injuries. Gray could be a like for like replacement, but Gracia has showed his preference for using Success as a partner for Deulofeu in the past. With Man. United’s exit from the Champions League, the Red Devils should be able to fully focus on the battle for fourth, and though Rashford has unappealing fixtures in gameweek 35 (eve/MCI), his shots and ‘big chances’ numbers indicate he could be a key man for the run in.

3. A Brighton defence exit plan

The Seagulls defence was a massive disappointment in gameweek 34, conceding seven goals in their two matches and with many looking for an exit plan, the xFPL table for defenders for the last six gameweeks is scrutinised to find a suitable replacement with the price capped at 5.0. The Burnley lads have good xFPL scores but their upcoming fixtures do not inspire confidence. Yoshida stands out, the Japanese international has taken five shots in the box and attempted two assists as the Saints have posted impressive defensive numbers under Hasenhüttl. He is also the only player to feature in the top-six to have a double gameweek in 35. In general, for anyone looking to dump a Brighton defender, the Southampton defence appears to be your best bet, with Gunn (4.3), and Yoshida (4.1) both looking like great options.