9 April

GW33 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

Caveat : This blog was written prior to the Champions League quarter-final matches on 09/04 and 10/04.

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Jagielka topped the xFPL table this week, only featuring in the Toffees’ lineup because Keane was unwell as Everton notched their fifth clean sheet in the last six gameweeks. Vardy and Hazard both registered 16 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points apiece, and no player attempted more assists (five) or landed more shots on target (SoT) (three) than the Belgian. Vardy outscores Hazard on xFPL points as he was afforded two ‘big chances’ to the Belgian’s one. The pacy striker continued his good form with three chances created and four shots inside the box (SiB), and no player registered more FPL involvements than his three. Maddison also posts impressive numbers, with three chances created and three SoT, indicating he was unfortunate not to get a bigger haul.


2. Keep faith in Mané?

Mané has now blanked in his last two appearances, and with the upcoming double gameweeks for similar priced midfield assets from Man. City and Spurs, his place is up for debate in our FPL squads. His statistics are compared to his competitors using our Fix Comparison tool, with Salah left out as his price-bracket is significantly higher. Despite scoring in his last game, Son’s underlying stats are unimpressive, with the Spurs man averaging a SoT only every other game. Eriksen on the other hand, is averaging a SoT every game, the same number as Mané and is creating nearly three times as much. However, he averages only 0.2 ‘big chances’ per game to the Senegalese’s one. D. Silva leads the way for attempted assists, and also has impressive ‘big chance’ numbers with 0.8, indicating he could be an explosive differential. B. Silva’s numbers are only slightly worse than the Spaniard’s, and is the cheapest option under discussion. Mané certainly has the underlying numbers to suggest holding him through the double gameweek period, but if you are inclined to take a punt, Eriksen is your man given that he is the only one who can match the Senegalese for security of starts and underlying statistics.


3. The budget double gameweek midfielders

Despite losing 3-1 to Liverpool, the Saints put in an impressive performance and their midfield assets are compared to other double gameweek midfielders in a similar price-bracket using our Fix Comparison Matrix. Surprisingly, it is the cheapest one, Ward-Prowse whose numbers stand out. He has landed the most SoT and attempted the most assists, which shows that his topping the FPL points metric is no fluke. His team-mate Redmond has taken more shots and afforded more ‘big chances’ though, and is also a decent option. Deulofeu’s minutes are a concern, but when on the pitch the Spaniard can be explosive, as he showed in the FA Cup Semi-final. Doucoure matches him for underlying numbers but has played nearly 270 more minutes than the Spaniard. Jota has registered the highest goal involvements of the players under consideration, but his underlying statistics are not the best, only averaging a SoT every other game, and less than one attempted assist per match.


Fantasy Football Fix