18 March

GW31 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

It was a low scoring weekend once again as only five players registered double digit scores, and of those five only Mané was owned by more than 10% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers. The Senegalese topped the xFPL table with a score of 9.7, scoring from his only shot on target (SoT) and winning the penalty which Milner converted. No player landed more SoT or shots in the box (SiB) than Salah’s three, but the Egyptian once again disappointed his owners with a xFPL score of only 5.3. Anderson registered his first attacking returns in the last six gameweeks and no player attempted more assists than the Brazilian’s four.


2. Double gameweek investment – Chelsea

Chelsea are one of the few teams who are expected to have a double gameweek in 32 and no blank in gameweek 33, making their players an attractive proposition irrespective of your chip strategy. Their assets are put under the microscope using the xFPL table for the last six gameweeks, and the results are surprising. Higuain tops the table scoring just one goal in that period, but it is surprising to see Jorginho in third given his lack of FPL returns. Azpilicueta appears to be the best defensive option with just one less point than Hazard over the aforementioned period. The Belgian’s numbers are worrying – he has landed just four SoT over the last six gameweeks and none of them were ‘big chances’. He leads the way for chances created with 11 but again, none of these were ‘big chances’. In general, the xFPL scores are low across the board and reflect Chelsea’s current malaise, something the Blues will be looking to rectify after the international break.


3. The Mané man for Liverpool

Over the last four gameweeks, Mané has outscored Salah 43 to 13, a massive 30 point difference. The two are compared using our Fix Heatmaps feature for that period, and though the Egyptian has landed eight SoT to the Senegalese’s five, the latter has scored from all five of those attempts. A comparison of the expected goals statistic is where Mané wins out, registering 0.83 to Salah’s 0.44, indicating that he is getting better quality chances, perhaps due to the opposition double-marking Salah. Both have attempted four assists apiece, so look even from a creative standpoint. Given the massive difference in price, Salah’s place is certainly up for debate in our squads, as Mané looks essential for Liverpool’s run in.


Fantasy Football Fix