Salah was unable to convert his two ‘big chances’ against Everton last gameweek but the Egyptian has amassed a total of five goals and two assists across his last six home matches, returning an average of 8.7 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points per game. His 20 goal attempts in the last six gameweeks ranks second amongst midfielders, while only Leicester’s H. Barnes has fired more, with 21. No midfielder has taken more than Salah’s nine shots on target (SoT) during the same period, while only Agüero (12) has produced more, across all positions. Liverpool have scored 10 goals in their last six matches, the fifth-highest over that period. They landed 32 SoT, with only Man. United (35) and Man. City (41) faring better. Burnley have conceded 10 goals in the same period, keeping no clean sheets. They have also allowed opponents 94 shots, with only Watford (95), West Ham (101) and Fulham (102) being more porous. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 8.7 for Salah.
Agüero boasts an incredible total of eight goals and one assist from his last seven league matches and the Argentine was named in Guardiola's starting lineup on each occasion. As the Custom stats table shows, over the last six gameweeks the Man. City forward ranks first for FPL involvements (eight), goal attempts (24) SoT (12), while only Rondón (20) has fired more than his 18 shots inside the box (SiB). Nine ‘big chances’ for the 30-year-old is also a league-best, ahead of A. Barnes (eight), Mitrovic (seven) and Jiménez (six). Over the aforementioned period, Man. City top the table for goals scored (14), shots (104), SiB (71), SoT (41) and ‘big chances’ (23), indicating that Watford are in for a tough evening. The Hornets have conceded nine goals in their last six matches and only West Ham (101) and Fulham (102) have allowed oppponents more shots than their 95. Our Fix Algorithm backs the Argentinian to get on the scoresheet with a point score of 7.3.
Injuries to both De Bruyne and Fernandinho leave Guardiola fairly limited in central-midfield but D. Silva could benefit with a run of starts. The Spaniard has directly contributed to 11 goals (six goals, five assists) in 21 starts this season, producing more attempted assists (56) than any Man. City teammate, while his 12 ‘big chances’ created can only be bettered by Fraser (16). As the Custom Stats table shows, the 33-year-old has earned five starts in the last six gameweeks, while no player has returned more than his three assists. Only Jota, King (each four) and Groß (five) have created more ‘big chances’ (three) than the Scot. His total of 10 SiB ranks joint fifth amongst midfielders level with Pogba, while only Hazard, Salah (each 11), Mané (12) and H. Barnes (14) have managed more. The Champions have scored 13 goals in their last four home matches, joint-first with Liverpool. They also top the table for ‘big chances’ over this period with 18 and SoT with 36. Watford have conceded eight goals in their last four away matches and only five teams have conceded more ‘big chances’ than their 12. Our Fix Algorithm projects just a 5% chance of a Watford clean sheet and a point score of 5.9 for the Spanish magician.
Rondón did everything but score against the Hammers firing off five goal attempts, while his total of five attempted assists was more than what any other forward managed during the gameweek. 17 SiB over the last four gameweeks ranks the Venezuelan first across all positions, while only Lukaku and Salah can match his seven SoT. What is more impressive, only Moutinho (13) and Maddison (21) have produced more attempted assists than Rondón’s 10 during that same period. Newcastle have scored nine goals in their last four home matches, only Wolves (10), Arsenal (11), Liverpool (13) and Man. City (13) have been more prolific. They have landed 23 SoT over this period, with only Wolves (28), Liverpool (31) and Man. City (36) testing the away goalkeeper more often. Everton have conceded 18 goals in their 14 away matches this season, keeping just three clean sheets. The Toffees have conceded 31 ‘big chances’ on their travels at an average of over two a game. Our Fix Algorithmbacks Rondon to get attacking returns with a projected point score of 4.1.
Since returning from injury, Alexander-Arnold has returned 27 FPL points in just two matches keeping a clean sheet in each and providing three assists. He has returned an average of 6.1 points per game this season, virtually matching his more expensive teammate Robertson who has averaged 6.2 points so far this season. The Liverpool right-back has directly contributed to seven goals in 18 starts (one goal, six assists) and only Kolasinac, Alonso, Holebas (each seven) and Robertson (nine) have provided more assists amongst defenders. Liverpool have not conceded a single goal in their last four gameweeks, and no team have conceded fewer ‘big chances’ than their two. They have limited opponents to just 30 shots, with only Everton (23) and Man. City (14) restricting opponents to fewer. The Reds have only conceded 11 SoT, fourth-best over that period. Burnley have scored 14 goals in their 15 away matches so far this season and only six teams have fared worse. Their total of 125 shots on their travels is the lowest in the league and with a 64% probability of a Liverpool clean sheet, our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 4.7 for the right-back.
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