Blog

11 March

GW30 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Mané tops the xFPL table with a score of 13.1 as the Senegalese continues to outshine his Egyptian teammate, beating him for both shots in the box (SiB), four vs. two, and ‘big chances’, two vs. zero. The gameweek’s highest scorer Sterling scored from all three of his shots on target (SoT) which would explain why his xFPL score of 12.5 is significantly lower than his Fantasy Premier League (FPL) point score of 21. The Englishman’s total of five SiB can only be matched by Higuain and Peréz this week. Eriksen, Gündogan and Özil attempted the most assists with four each, but no player created more ‘big chances’ than Mahrez’ three. Vardy also posted impressive stats with two attempted assists and four SiB, two of which were ‘big chances’.

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2. Scouting the blank gameweek candidates – the midfielders

With several big-hitters such as Pogba, Son and Sterling missing out in gameweek 31 due to FA Cup fixtures, the best replacement options are put under the scanner using our Fix Comparison Matrix. Mané’s numbers immediately stand out, the Senegalese tops the comparison for FPL points, goals, SoT, xFPL points and ‘big chances’. Despite not registering any FPL involvements in the three gameweeks prior to gameweek 30, Fraser has still posted an impressive average xFPL score, only trailing Mané. Given that Bournemouth have played Man. City, Arsenal and Wolves in those games, his numbers look even better. Maddison also registered great numbers if you are looking to invest in a Rodgers revival, averaging three shots and 4.3 attempted assists a game. Worryingly, for Hazard owners, his numbers are much lower than expected, but perhaps this is down to the fact that Chelsea played Tottenham and Man. City in the last four.

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3. Scouting the blank gameweek candidates – the forwards

With Vardy and Wilson getting on the scoresheet this weekend, there are plenty of in-form forwards to consider for the blank gameweeks. Rondón is not included in the comparison as Newcastle may still have a blank fixture in gameweek 33 if Palace beat Watford in their FA Cup game.  The candidates are analysed using our Fix Comparison Matrix once again and Wilson’s numbers stand out, albeit his data is only from one game. The Englishman appears to be key to Bournemouth’s style of play and if you are looking to invest in the Cherries, he is your man. Vardy has four goals in his last four appearances and has the underlying statistics to indicate he can sustain that form going forward. Higuain has been shooting a lot but just 26% of his shots are finding the target, which indicates that the Argentinian is yet to find his feet in the English league.

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