26 Aug.

GW3 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

West Ham’s record signing tops the xFPL table this week with a score of 12.5, and no player landed more shots on target (SoT) than his three this weekend. Only Salah (three) registered more ‘big chances’ than Haller’s two and the Egyptian comes in second with an xFPL score of 11.7. Trossard was the week’s most creative player with seven attempted assists, but it is also worth mentioning that Alexander-Arnold attempted six. The right-back also took three shots in the box (SiB) to notch an xFPL score of 6.0. Kane had a poor game, with just one SiB and an xFPL score of just 3.5. With Jesus suffering from a hamstring injury, Agüero put himself back on the radar with an impressive performance. The Argentine created three chances and took the same number of SiB to notch an xFPL score of 8.8, coming fifth in the table.


2. A good week for the forwards

As many as twelve forwards scored this weekend, with Joelinton, Abraham, Haller, Wesley and McBurnie scoring their first goals for their respective clubs. As the xFPL table (for forwards under 8.0) shows, the Pukki party continued against Chelsea but the Finn’s underlying statistics were not as impressive in as previous matches. He had his only chance created converted and took just two SiB, notching an xFPL score of just 6.9. Barnes continues to impress and has now taken more shots (13) than any player in the league. Haller looks the real deal and has a great fixture run coming. Both players look like good replacements for Jota. The Portuguese man endured another difficult outing with an xFPL score of just 2.7. Wesley is also worth monitoring, the Brazilian created two chances and took the same number of SiB.


3. The case for Mount

Mount continued his rise under the tutelage of Lampard with a goal against Norwich this weekend. With Martial possibly injured, the Chelsea man looks more than able to step up to the plate should a replacement be required. As the Fix Heatmaps show, he has scored the same number of goals as the Frenchman (two) and beats him for shots (12 to eight) and SoT (seven to three). The Chelsea youngster is on most of Chelsea’s set-pieces, so there is no surprise that he also beats him for chances created seven to two. His calf injury is not thought to be serious with his manager expecting him to be available for the visit of Sheff. Utd in gameweek four. Mount is already one of the most transferred in players this week and looks to represent excellent value in a Chelsea side that may have to score lots of goals in order to win matches.


"Mason took a knock to his calf, so that is better than a strain, obviously,’ said Lampard. "So hopefully in a couple of days it will settle down, so hopefully that is good news. We will assess it."

Fantasy Football Fix