4 March

GW29 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

It was a low scoring weekend once again with only seven players scored double digit Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points, and of those seven only Jiménez was owned by over 10 percent. The Mexican topped the xFPL table with a score of 10.4 as a result of his four attempted assists and two shots on target (SoT), both of which were ‘big chances’. No player landed more SoT than Lukaku’s four, with the Belgian finding himself second on the xFPL table. Knockaert leads the way for attempted assists with six, but only notched a 5.1 xFPL score because only one of these was considered a ‘big chance’ created. Rondón is second for attempted assists (five) and shots in the box (SiB) (four), indicating he was unfortunate not to register any FPL returns.


2. The not-so premium striker battle

Higuain scored his third goal of the season as Chelsea won 2-1 at Craven Cottage, and no player registered more than his six SiB in gameweek 29. Vardy also got on the scoresheet against Watford making it two goals in as many games for the Englishman. With both strikers having confirmed fixtures in gameweek 31 and 33, their stats are compared using the Fix Heatmaps feature for the last six gameweeks. It is worth mentioning that Higuain has played a game less due to Chelsea’s blank fixture in gameweek 27. While Higuain beats Vardy for shots, the Englishman landed more SoT and appears to be getting better quality chances than the Argentinian, as illustrated by his higher expected goals numbers. Both appear to be good options but Vardy’s penalty duties, cheaper price and new manager effect slightly tip it towards the Englishman.


3. Invest in the Hammers

West Ham got back to winning ways with a 2-0 win against Newcastle and given that their next two fixtures are against teams sitting in 18th and 20th position in the table,investment in their assets seems a prudent move. As the Custom Stats tableshows, Snodgrass leads the way for xFPL points in the last four gameweeks with 10 attempted assists, double that of Anderson’s five. He has also taken five shots, compared to just one for Anderson and comes in at over 2m cheaper than the Brazilian. Chicharito appears to have cemented his spot as first choice striker, with Arnautovic only featuring off the bench, and the Mexican leads the way for SiB with eight. They also appear to have found some defensive resolve as four of their defenders feature in the top eight.


Fantasy Football Fix