1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Man. City assets once again dominate the xFPL table as Agüero and Sterling posted double digit xFPL scores to back up their Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points, but it appears to be a low scoring week overall if you owned neither of the pair, as only two other players posted double digit xFPL numbers. No player was afforded more ‘big chances’ than the Argentinian’s four, and he was also top for shots on target (SoT) with three. Zaha and Jiménez beat Agüero for shots in the box (SiB) with six, but post significantly lower xFPL scores (8.0 and 5.8) as they had only one ‘big chance’ between them, despite three attempted assists apiece. Despite seven shots, three SoT and three attempted assists, Salah posted a xFPL score of only 6.7 as only one was considered a ‘big chance’. No player attempted more assists than Maddison’s seven, with the Englishman unlucky not to pick up any FPL returns.

2. Ashley Barnes

Burnley’s attacking assets have often been overlooked by Fantasy managers, but with three goals and an assist in his last three matches, coupled with the fact that the Clarets are one of the few teams to have guaranteed fixtures in gameweek 27, 31 and 33, the Austrian deserves consideration for a place in your squad. Over the last four gameweeks, only Agüero (nine) has landed more SoT than Barnes (eight), and only the Argentinian (eight) has been afforded more ‘big chances’ than his seven. As the Comparison Matrixshows, his numbers stack up favourably against Jiménez and Rashford as well with 14 shots, just two behind the pair. With penalty duties in his locker, and Burnley’s upturn in form, the forward is a great pick, and at 5.6, cheap enough to bench when needed.

3. The third Liverpool asset

With Liverpool keeping just two clean sheets in their last seven matches, a defensive double up on the Reds’ defence appears less attractive than it did earlier in the season, and a case can be made for looking to their attack for your third player. A look at Liverpool’s xFPL table for the last four matches presents a convincing case for Mané. The Senegalese has scored more goals (four) than Salah (three), taken more SiB (12 to nine) and landed more SoT (eight to seven). He is only marginally behind the Egyptian for attempted assists (four to five) and ‘big chances’ (two to three). With Liverpool guaranteed fixtures in gameweek 27, 31 and 33, investment in Mané could be a great differential with his ownership only at 17.5% in live teams.