xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.
Chelsea’s Brazilian winger Willian tops the Custom Stats xFPL table with a score of 10.5 after his mesmerizing display against Spurs. The highest Fantasy Premier League (FPL) scorer of the week with 16 points, he attempted five assists and scored with both of his shots, one of which was a ‘big chance’. Buendia was the week’s most creative player with nine attempted assists, two of which were ‘big chances’, leading to an xFPL score of 7.3. Mahrez was really determined to score against his old side, no player attempted more shots (10), shots in the box (SiB) (six) or landed more shots on target (SoT) (four) than the Algerian. However, none of these were ‘big chances’, which explains his low xFPL score of 8.6. De Bruyne once again posted impressive numbers with seven attempted assists and four shots, but the lack of ‘big chances’ meant he notched an xFPL score of only 6.3.
Ings took his total to 11 goals for the season after his brace against Villa and the Saints striker has now scored seven goals in as many appearances. Using the Fix Comparison Matrix, his numbers are compared to other budget forwards for that period. Ings’ total of seven goals is more than double that of any the other forwards and surprisingly he has played the second most minutes, which indicates his injury worries are behind him. He trails only Jota and Pukki (both 21) for shots (16) but has registered more ‘big chances’ (five) than either of them (both four). He has also tested the keeper with a higher percentage of his shots, an indicator of his current confidence level and quality. The question is, can he sustain this output over the Saints’ upcoming run of difficult fixtures. The Saints have the second hardest run of fixtures over the next six gameweeks as per our Fixture Analyzer. Over the period where Ings prospered (gameweek 12-18), they were ranked top. A drop in output is only natural, but at his price point, he remains the best option.
A red card for violent conduct means Son misses the next three Premier League games which has led to managers scrambling for a replacement. He is already the most sold player this gameweek as per our Transfer Stats feature with De Bruyne, Salah and Grealish the top three beneficiaries. Using the Stats Sandbox feature, the xFPL scores of midfielders are compared for the last four gameweeks to see the best options for FPL managers. De Bruyne wins the race by a margin and is the obvious replacement if you do not own him already. Willian’s numbers are impressive but they are inflated by his latest performance against Spurs. Salah’s numbers jump out – despite playing just 180 minutes he is ranked fifth with an xFPL score of 20.12. Alli’s numbers have tailed off after a strong start under Mourinho, he has landed just four SoT in the last four matches and has an xG of just 0.64, so while he might seem like an obvious option, he may not be the best one. Pogba was impressive in his cameo against Watford, the Frenchman attempted an assist and landed two SoT in just 26 minutes. At just 3.2% ownership, he has potential to be an explosive differential.
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