1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Salah tops the Custom Stats xFPL table this week with a score of 9.7, the Egyptian showed he was over his injury problems with a brace against Watford. No player attempted more shots in the box (SiB) (seven) than the Egyptian this week and only De Bruyne (four) landed more shots on target (SoT). The Belgian comes in at third in the table with an xFPL score of 9.3, he attempted three assists and took five shots, just two of which were in the box. Maddison was the week’s most creative player with six attempted assists, but he notched an xFPL score of just 3.8 as none of these were ‘big chances’. Vardy tested the keeper with just two of his five shots, and was afforded no ‘big chances’, which explains his low xFPL score of 3.4. Mané had a quiet game by his standards, the Senegal international landed just one SoT and attempted just one assist, registering an xFPL score of just 3.4.

2. The Chelsea slump

Chelsea have scored just three goals in their last four league matches, which is alarming considering the opposition – West Ham, Villa, Everton and Bournemouth who all currently sit in the bottom seven. Their statistics are compared using the Stats Sandbox team stats for the last four gameweeks in addition to gameweeks 9-12 (the Man. City game is excluded from the comparison), where they played Newcastle, Burnley, Watford and Palace. Chelsea scored nine goals in the earlier period but what is strange is that they actually attempted fewer SiB then (46 to 55). The SoT have dropped off by six, which indicates their finishing has been worse. The ‘big chances’ are similar, 12 to 11 and so is the xG, 7.66 to 7.20. It’s hard to pinpoint a reason for their malaise as they are still creating chances of similar quality, but it appears their attackers have suffered a confidence crisis. Fatigue could also be an issue. The numbers indicate that their assets still offer potential going forward and should be held for the appealing fixtures after Spurs.

3. Finding safe hands

Often an overlooked position in Fantasy Premier League, goalkeepers can be a rich source of points as Guaita has demonstrated recently. The Spaniard has registered 34 points in the last four gameweeks, only Alli (35) has more. Using the Stats Sandbox feature, the xFPL scores for goalkeepers over the last four gameweeks are compared and Guaita comes out on top by a fair margin. However, some of the other names are interesting. Much has been written about Man. City’s defensive malaise but the underlying statistics indicate that Ederson is still a great option. Despite keeping no clean sheets, De Gea comes in at sixth, which would indicate that the Red Devils have been a tad unlucky. Henderson looks to be the standout keeper under 5.0, only marginally behind Ramsdale who has had to rely a lot on save points. Heaton is at the bottom of the table with an xFPL of only 10.24 and with the injury to Mings, the possibility of clean sheets looks slim for the Birmingham side, despite them being second in our Fixture Analyzer for defensive difficulty. Pope is only marginally above him at 11.64, his numbers dented after conceding 11 goals he in games against Palace, Man. City and Spurs.