xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.
Mané and Rashford sit joint-top of the Custom Stats xFPL table this week with identical scores of 10.8, the first time the table has seen a tie this season. The Senegal man took two shots inside the box (SiB), both of which were ‘big chances’ and also created two ‘big chances’ himself. Rashford took double Mane’s SiB (four) and landed four shots on target (SoT), the highest this week. Groß was the week’s most creative player with six attempted assists, but none of these were a ‘big chance’ and the German registered an xFPL score of 4.0 only. Abraham’s numbers were impressive, the Chelsea man took four SiB, hitting the target with two of them and also attempted two assists, notching an xFPL score of 7.8. Pulisic and Jiménez owners can count themselves unlucky. Both popular assets attempted four SiB each with the Mexican beating the American for xFPL 6.2 to 4.8.
Man. City’s two most popular Fantasy Premier League (FPL) assets De Bruyne and Sterling failed to register any attacking returns in gameweek 15, with the pair involved in none of the current Champions’ four goals. Using the Fix Comparison Matrix, the duo are compared with other popular midfield options over the last three gameweeks to see whether managers should keep the faith. Sterling has scored the fewest points (12) of the players under consideration and only Son (six) has taken fewer shots than his seven. He has landed four SoT though, which is about par with the rest of the group. He continues to be afforded ‘big chances’, notching just one fewer than Alli’s four. De Bruyne’s numbers are far more impressive. He has taken 12 shots, landed six SoT and attempted 12 assists, highest in all three metrics. The numbers would indicate that if you have to pick just one Man. City asset, De Bruyne is your man but there are plenty of reasons to hold on to Sterling as well. Alli appears to be the best replacement if you are getting rid, he tops the xFPL statistic with 23 points and has very good overall numbers considering he is the cheapest of the lot.
With popular assets getting rotated over the busy Christmas period, having a good bench is vital and using the Stats Sandbox, budget defenders 4.5 and under are compared over the last four gameweeks. xFPL is used as it factors in expected clean sheets, assists and goals. Holgate comes out on top but Everton have a horrid run of fixtures and with the managerial uncertainty he is probably not the best option. Clark, Rico and Targett however all look like outstanding candidates. Only Webster (four) has landed more SoT amongst defenders over the aforementioned period than Clark’s two. Targett and Rico have both attempted three assists apiece, trailing only Burn (four). Rico plays Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal in his next four matches whereas Clark and Targett both have more obliging opponents as per our Fixture Analyzer, which tilts the scale in their favour.
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