xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Nelson tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 14 with a score of 12.8, the 22-year-old came off the bench against Forest and took three shots in the box (SiB), all of which were 'big chances'. Mitrović led the way for shots (10) and SiB (10), the Serbian international registered an xFPL score of just 5.3 as none of these efforts was a 'big chance'. Trossard was top for shots on target (SoT) (four), two of the Belgian international's six SiB were 'big chances' which led to an xFPL score of 8.3. A. Pereira was the most creative player over the weekend with seven chances created, but these were all low-quality chances as evidenced by his 0.3 'Expected Asissts' tally. The Brazilian playmaker managed an xFPL score of just 3.5 with zero SiB. Salah took seven shots, four of which were in the box but was afforded just one 'big chance', the Egyptian international notched an xFPL score of 7.1.

Man. Utd flying under the radar

Man. Utd sit fifth in the Premier League table after their win against West Ham and the Red Devils are one of the league's form sides with 11 points out of a possible 15 in their last five matches. As the Stats Sandbox image above shows, two of their top FPL scorers over that period Dalot (28) and Shaw (26) sit first (27.48) and third (23.17) for xFPL which just shows the value in their defence. Rashford is top for shots (15), SoT (seven), 'big chances' (five) and 'Expected Goals' (xG) (2.50). The England international should arguably have had more than the 17 FPL points he has notched. Martinez has also provided value with 22 points over the last five gameweeks at a price of just 4.5. The Red Devils play Villa and Fulham before the World Cup break so it is a good time to bring in their assets, both in defence and in attack.

Toney replacements compared

Toney is suspended for gameweek 15 after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season against Wolves and the replacement candidates are compared using the Fix Heatmaps feature. Mitrović is not included due to his difficult fixtures against both Manchester sides. C. Wilson appears to be the standout option, the Newcastle forward tops the comparison for FPL points (39), goals (four), assists (three) and 'big chances' (seven). Jesus looks to be the next best pick, the Brazilian international tops the comparison for SoT (nine) and is joint-top for both assists (three) and 'big chances' (seven), despite playing the fewest minutes in the comparison. He is on four yellow cards though and a booking against Chelsea could see him miss his gameweek 16 fixture versus Wolves. Scamacca is top for attempted assists (10) but the Italian international's minutes could be under threat from Antonio.