xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

The Premier League's top marksman Haaland tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 13 with a score of 11.0. The Norwegian international scored from two of his three shots in the box (SiB), two of which were 'big chances'. Benrahma and D. Costa led the way for shots (eight each) with the former scoring his penalty to notch an xFPL score of 7.6 compared to the Spanish international's 5.4. No player created more chances than Aaronson (seven), the 22-year-old also took one SiB and registered an xFPL score of 5.8. Watkins was afforded a whopping four 'big chances' and probably should have scored more than just one goal from his five SiB. He landed all of his attempts on target as well and registered an xFPL score of 8.3. Salah took four SiB and created one chance but had no 'big chance' involvements which led to a low xFPL score of just 3.7.

Budget midfielders shining

It was a tremendous weekend for budget midfielders with the likes of A. Pereira, Bailey, Xhaka and others delivering big returns at a discount price. As the above image from our Fix Comparison Matrix shows, Almirón comes out top for goals per game (0.5), shots (2.6), shots on target (SoT) (0.8) and 'big chances' (0.4). A. Pereira's creative numbers are outstanding, the 26-year-old averages 2.3 chances created per game and leads the comparison for assists (0.4). Xhaka is not getting a large volume of chances, he averages only 1.2 shots per game but the chances he does get are of high quality as shown by an average of 0.3 'big chances' per game. Bailey averages the fewest minutes played in the comparison but most of these were under his previous manager Gerrard, he might have more game time under new management so will need to improve his underlying numbers to nail down a starting spot. He does top the comparison for 'big chances' created (0.5) which is encouraging.

Transfer Activity analysed

With nine more FPL points (67) than last year's top scorer Salah (58) and strong underlying numbers, it is no surprise to see Almirón top the transfers ahead of gameweek 14 with nearly 400,000 managers already bringing him in at the time of writing as per our Transfer Analytics feature. Salah is the most sold player with nearly 200,000 transfers out, but as the below image from our Fixture Analyser shows, the Reds are ranked third for Fixture Difficulty for the next three weeks leading up to the World Cup so perhaps they might be acting in haste. Man. City do have the best fixtures, so managers who are moving the Egyptian international on to De Bruyne might still benefit.