Blog

26 Nov.

GW13 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Vardy tops the Custom Stats xFPL table with a score of 14.8 as his season continues to go from strength to strength. No player took more shots than the Englishman’s six this gameweek, all of which were in the box. He also leads the way for shots on target (SoT) with four and no player was afforded more ‘big chances’ than his three. Grealish leads the creativity statistics with six attempted assists, one of which was a ‘big chance’. Notching an xFPL score of 6.2, he also attempted five shots, four of which were in the box and landed two SoT. Ward-Prowse underlined his credentials ahead of an appealing fixture run with three attempted assists and the same number of SoT, registering an xFPL score of 9.7. Mane registered an xFPL score of only 6.4 as he scored from his only SoT and was afforded no ‘big chances’.

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2. The Mourinho bounce

Spurs won their first game under Mourinho 3-2 and a look at the Match Statistics feature shows that they took a total of 15 shots with six on target and an xG of 2.30. Son was their most creative player with three attempted assists, two of which were ‘big chances’. He took three shots, two of which were on target, registering an xG (expected goals) of 0.36. Lucas on the other hand managed an xG of 1.36 from his three shots and looks like a great bargain differential at his 7m price tag and low ownership. Kane’s Touch Heat Map indicates that he is still dropping deep a lot to link up play and he managed only two shots with an xG of 0.27. Alli has been making headlines for his performance but from a Fantasy Premier League perspective, he was dropping quite deep rather than breaking into the box and took just one touch in the penalty area. He attempted two assists and took two shots but managed only an xG of 0.11. Son appears to be the best option for now and is owned by under 15% of the Top 1000 as per our FPL Statistics feature. All their attacking assets offer potential going forward and a plum fixture against Bournemouth looks a great time to invest.

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3. Forwards strike back        

17 players classified as forwards in FPL registered attacking returns this week with Vardy leading the way on 12 points. As the Stats Sandbox shows, Jimenez in particular was impressive as he took a total of six shots, landing three on target and registering an xG of 0.68. Deulofeu and Jota were the most creative frontmen with five and three attempted assists respectively. Jota’s output has suffered as a result of Wolves’ change in formation to 3-4-3 and he managed just a solitary shot this gameweek. Rashford continues to impress, the Man. Utd striker registered an xFPL score of 9.14 with an xG of 0.95, taking three shots and attempting an assist as well. Lacazette put his case forward ahead of Arsenal’s fixture against Norwich, the Frenchman notched an xFPL score of 8.18 compared to Aubameyang’s 3.76 and registered seven penalty box touches compared to just three for the Gabonese. 

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