Headliner - Raheem Sterling (SOU)
Sterling boasts an impressive record at the Etihad during this calendar year, with seven goals and five assists in 12 home matches, to earn an average of 7.3 points per game (PPG). The 24-year-old has found returns in three of the last four gameweeks, amassing two goals and one assist. As the Stats Sandbox shows, no teammate has produced more than his 11 attempted assists during that period, while only Yarmolenko (six) has created more than his four 'big chances', amongst all players. No team has scored more goals on home turf than the defending Champions’ 17 and they are also top for ‘big chances’ at home with 25. Only Liverpool (41) have landed more shots on target (SoT) in front of their own fans than Man. City’s 38. Southampton have conceded only six goals on their travels so far, but it is worth highlighting who they have played; Burnley, Sheff. Utd, Brighton, Wolves and Spurs, playing Man. City at the Etihad is a different kettle of fish. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 9.2 for Sterling.
Tammy Abraham (wat)
An assist against Burnley last weekend means Abraham has found returns in each of his last four away matches, while no player has scored as many as his six goals on the road this season. As the Stats Sandbox shows, despite scoring just once in the last four gameweeks, the Chelsea forward ranks joint-first with Vardy for 'big chances' during that time, both with six. Meanwhile, only Salah (nine) has fired more than his eight SoT and Jesus (17) is the only forward to have taken more than his 13 goal attempts. Chelsea have scored 17 goals over the last six gameweeks while only Man. City (18) and Leicester (19) have scored more. Chelsea are also second for shots in the box (SiB) (68) and ‘big chances’ (22), trailing only Man. City who have 99 and 31 respectively. Watford have conceded 13 goals over the same six gameweek period, while only Norwich (14) and Southampton (19) have conceded more. They are fifth-worst for ‘big chances’ conceded (15), with only Newcastle (16), Sheff. Utd (18), Southampton (21) and Norwich (22) faring worse. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 5.2 for Abraham.
Roberto Firmino (avl)
Firmino came away with some impressive underlying numbers against Spurs, as he looks to end a run of four games without an attacking return. He missed a 'big chance' and had an expected goals (xG) score of 0.81 as per the Match Statistics feature, which was just behind Salah amongst teammates, with the penalty being largely responsible for that. The Brazilian has outscored Mané (1.74 to 1.20) on xG over the last three gameweeks and no Liverpool player has fired as many as his 11 SiB during that period. He ranks ahead of both Salah (0.21) and Mané (0.38) for expected assists (xA) in that time, with a score of 0.57. Liverpool have scored 11 goals in the last six gamweeks, and only Chelsea (17), Man. City (18) and Leicester (19) have scored more. They are third for SoT, with only Villa (42) and Man. City (48) testing the opposition goalkeeper more frequently. Villa have conceded 10 goals over the same period, keeping just one clean sheet. No team has allowed opponents more shots than their 111 over this period. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 5.0 for Firmino.
David Silva (SOU)
Man City’s 3-0 win over Aston Villa saw D. Silva find his eighth attacking return of the season (three goals, five assists), and the Spaniard now averages a respectable 6.0 PPG. He has earned starts in four of the last five league matches and no teammate has scored more than his three goals during that spell. Sterling (15) and Jesus (17) were the only teammates to fire more than his 11 goal attempts, while only Agüero (2.52) and Jesus (3.30) could better his xG score of 2.40. As the Stats Sandbox Team stats table shows, Man. City (18) have been outscored only by Leicester (19) over the last six gameweeks and they top the league for shots (137), SoT (48) and ‘big chances’ (31) over this period. No team have conceded more goals than Southampton’s 19 over the same period and only Spurs (40), Norwich (42) conceded more SoT than their 34. They are also second-worst for ‘big chances’ conceded with 21, and only Norwich (22) have fared worse. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 5.1 for D. Silva.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (avl)
Despite coming away without a return against Spurs last Sunday, a tally of seven attempted assists by Alexander-Arnold was more than any other player managed in gameweek 10. The right-back has amassed a league-best total of 14 attempted assists in the last four gameweeks, ranking ahead of Buendía (12), Grealish, Digne and Sterling (each 11). Only Sterling (four) and Yarmolenko (six) have created more ‘big chances' than his three, during this period. Liverpool have conceded only eight goals this season, the lowest in the league and have been unfortunate to register just two clean sheets. Only Man. Utd (13) and Burnley (10) have allowed opponents fewer ‘big chances’ than their 14. They have restricted the opposition to just 14 SoT, the best in the league. Their opponents Villa have scored only seven goals in their five home matches and are ranked 12th for SiB on home turf with 41. Our Fix Algorithm projects a 40% chance of a Liverpool clean sheet and a point score of 4.8 for the right-back.