Top 5 FPL Differentials to Target

With the international break giving FPL managers a rare breather, it’s the perfect time to take a step back and start planning ahead.

Gameweek 12 marks the beginning of a crucial run before the mini reset in Gameweek 16, when the African Cup of Nations begins and managers will be handed five free transfers to reshape their squads.

Here are five standout FPL options, all under 10% ownership, who could make a real difference over the coming Gameweeks. 👇

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1. Lacroix or Richards: Pick your Palace defender based on budget

Position: Defender

Cost: £5.0m (Lacroix) / £4.5m (Richards)

Fixtures: WOL (A), MUN (H), BUR (A), FUL (A), MCI (H)

Predicted points (GW12–16): Lacroix – 21.2 | Richards – 21.0

Crystal Palace’s defence has quietly been one of the most reliable in the league — five clean sheets in the opening 11 matches, a total bettered only by Arsenal (7). They’ve also conceded just nine goals, the third fewest in the Premier League, as shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox.

If you’re looking for a Palace defender, the decision between Lacroix (£5.0m) and Richards (£4.5m) largely comes down to budget. Both are nailed and rank among the top five defenders for DEFCON score (117 and 118 respectively), underlining how key they’ve been to Palace’s defensive structure.

Lacroix offers a touch more attacking potential — 1 assist, 5 shots, and 1 big chance — with an xA of 0.53, but it’s debatable whether that justifies the extra £0.5m. Richards, meanwhile, delivers near-identical defensive output at a lower price, making him the better value pick.

The Gameweek 16 hosting Man City is far from ideal, but over the next four fixtures, Palace rank fifth in the Fixture Planner for defensive difficulty, giving both defenders strong potential for clean sheets and consistent DEFCON returns.

2. Danny Welbeck: A renaissance season at 34

Position: Forward

Cost: £6.5m

Fixtures: BRE (H), NFO (A), AVL (H), WHU (H), LIV (A)

Predicted points (GW12–16): 20.9

At 34 years old, Danny Welbeck is enjoying a remarkable resurgence — already netting 6 goals in 11 games, just four shy of his Premier League career best of 10.

Only Erling Haaland (14) has scored more non-penalty goals this season, with Welbeck firmly established as the focal point of Brighton’s attack. He’s produced 14 shots, including 10 inside the box and 8 on target, while also registering 7 big chances.

Brighton’s upcoming fixtures are a mixed bag, but their home matches against Brentford and Aston Villa provide real potential for returns. The Seagulls also rank 4th for Attack Difficulty up to Gameweek 16, which strengthens his appeal.

Welbeck looks an excellent short-term differential pick for managers chasing green arrows before the AFCON reshuffle.

3. Jérémy Doku: The Pep Roulette wildcard

Position: Midfielder

Cost: £6.4m

Fixtures: NEW (A), LEE (H), FUL (A), SUN (H), CRY (A)

Predicted points (GW12–16): 16.2

Rotation is always a risk with Manchester City, but Jérémy Doku is making himself increasingly difficult to drop.

This season, he’s been a creative force — registering 4 FPL assists, with only Kudus and Minteh (5 each) producing more among midfielders. He could easily have added to that tally, having created 23 chances (the most of any City player) and 5 big chances, which is joint-most in the league.

The return of Marmoush from injury does increase competition for the wide roles, so an occasional benching remains likely. However, City’s upcoming fixtures rank as the 2nd easiest for attacking difficulty, and the Predicted Points & Stats Tool projects them to score over nine goals between Gameweek 12 and 16.

With Haaland already a near-universal pick, Doku could be the perfect way to tap into City’s attack from a more differential angle.

Liverpool sit top for attack difficulty over the same stretch, but with rotation under Slot and uncertain form across their midfield options, finding a reliable pick there is tricky. If Doku maintains his current output, he looks well worth the Pep Roulette gamble.

4. Matheus Nunes: Quietly consistent and locked in

Position: Midfielder

Cost: £5.3m

Fixtures: NEW (A), LEE (H), FUL (A), SUN (H), CRY (A)

Predicted points (GW12–16): 19.1

While Doku has been stealing the spotlight, Matheus Nunes has quietly established himself as a key part of Pep Guardiola’s back line.

He’s started the last six league matches, making him the second-most used City defender behind Rúben Dias this season.

Nunes has contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, and a glance at his Opta Heatmap shows he’s often given licence to push forward. He’s completed 139 successful final-third passes, the most of any City defender, underlining how involved he is in their build-up play.

With City facing Leeds, Fulham, and Sunderland in three of their next five, they’re projected to keep the joint-most clean sheets (alongside Arsenal) over that period.

At £5.3m, Nunes offers a reliable route into City’s defence — with attacking potential and arguably less rotation risk than Doku.

5. Yankuba Minteh: Brighton’s under-the-radar gem

Position: Midfielder

Cost: £6.0m

Fixtures: BRE (H), NFO (A), AVL (H), WHU (H), LIV (A)

Predicted points (GW12–16): 18.2

Yankuba Minteh’s raw pace and directness have certainly passed the eye test this season.

With 1 goal and 5 assists — the joint-most of any player in the league — alongside 17 key passes and 4 big chances created, he’s quickly become one of the Premier League’s most productive wide players.

The underlying data supports the hype too. His 1.70 xG, 2 big chances, and 16 shots in the box (the most of any Brighton player) suggest he’s been slightly unlucky not to add another goal or two to his tally.

His Opta Touch Map reinforces that point — no player in the league has had more touches in the opposition box (78), highlighting just how advanced his positioning is.

With Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa, and West Ham in the next three, Minteh has both the form and fixtures to keep delivering — and remains one of the standout mid-priced differential picks heading into Gameweek 12.

FPL Differentials Conclusion

As FPL managers prepare for the next fixture swing, these five players could prove to be shrewd differentials leading up to the Gameweek 16 reset.

Palace’s defence offers reliable clean-sheet potential, Brighton attackers bring steady returns, and City’s fixtures could present huge upside for those willing to take calculated risks.

If you’re chasing rank or looking to gain ground before the AFCON reset — this is your moment to move early.

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