In this blog, we break down the standout performers, analyse the latest transfer trends, and reveal the early must-have picks for the upcoming Gameweeks of the 2025/26 FPL season.
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As shown in the image below, Thiago tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 21 with a score of 13.5. The 24-year-old took six shots in the box, landed four attempts on target and was afforded two 'big chances'.
No player attempted more shots (eight) or shots in the box (eight) than Šeško. The Slovenian international landed seven of those efforts on target, but only two were classified as ‘big chances’, resulting in an xFPL score of 9.2.
Dorgu and B. Fernandes were the most creative players, both attempting five assists. Dorgu also took three shots in the box compared to just one for B. Fernandes, which contributed to a higher xFPL score of 10.4 versus 8.1 for the Portuguese international.
Haaland also attempted eight shots but hit the target with only four. He was afforded two ‘big chances’ and arguably should have delivered a bigger haul, as reflected by his xFPL score of 8.2.
Another player to register eight shots was Wilson. The Welsh international took five shots in the box and landed three on target. However, none of his efforts were deemed ‘big chances’, limiting his xFPL score to just 7.2.
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA), which combine to form expected FPL involvements (xG + xA = xI), along with expected clean sheets (xCS). These values are based on underlying statistics — for example, shot type and location determine the probability of scoring, which contributes to xG. xFPL then combines these metrics, factoring in appearance and bonus points to produce an overall expected FPL point score.
As shown in the Transfer Analytics tool below, Thiago is the most transferred-in player ahead of Gameweek 22, with nearly 300,000 FPL managers adding him to their teams at the time of writing.
Gabriel is yet to blank since his return from injury and is the most transferred-in defender this Gameweek. Meanwhile, the midfield trio of Bruno G., Wilson and Rice continue to attract heavy investment.
Ekitiké has now missed the last two league matches due to injury, prompting nearly 200,000 FPL managers to sell the French international. Man City’s FPL assets continue to disappoint, with both Foden and Gvardiol being sold in droves, while the return of B. Fernandes may be driving managers to move on from Cunha.
Looking at the top 10 forward transfer combinations, Bowen → Thiago (23.1%) is the single most popular move across all positions, with Ekitiké → Thiago (14.6%) in second. Calvert-Lewin and Watkins are also popular while Woltemade, Welbeck and Marc Guiu are the other forwards being sold.
In midfield, the top 10 combinations are more scattered with Cunha → Rice (7.7%) the most popular. The Brazilian international is also being sold for Bruno G., B.Fernandes and Wilson while Foden, Gordon and Saka are the other popular midfielders being sold.
In defence, buying Gabriel continues to be the priority with seven of the top 10 defender transfer combinations involving bringing in the centre-back. O'Reilly, J.Timber, Keane, Gvardiol, Virgil, Guéhi, Rúben and Dorgu are the ones making way.
Thiago (40) and Calvert-Lewin (41) have been in incredible form over the last six Gameweeks with 82 points FPL combined.
As the above image from our Player Heatmaps feature shows, only a single FPL point splits the two while only Collins (48) has scored more FPL points over the aforementioned period. It is worth noting that Calvert-Lewin has scored higher despite playing significantly fewer minutes (532 vs 460).
Both players have scored the same number of goals (five) but Thiago is significantly ahead for 'Expected Goals' (4.48 vs 3.82) and shot volume (15 vs 13).
The Brentford forward has the edge when it comes to creativity as well with 1.45 'Expected Assists' compared to 0.73 for Calvert-Lewin.
Looking at the numbers, both appear to be excellent options and FPL managers should perhaps to be looking to get both in, given their excellent value rather than pick between one.
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