As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

Fancy an early Christmas present? Why not treat yourself to Premium Plus access for free by clicking here.

In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 16.

BUY: Cole Palmer

• Cost: £5.4m
• Selected by: 15.7%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 20.5

When looking ahead at the fixtures, there are few teams which have it quite as good as Chelsea. In fact, if we fast-forward to Gameweek 24, we can see that in that eight-Gameweek period, Chelsea only face opposition from the top of half of the table on one occasion (Liverpool in Gameweek 22).

The question, therefore, is: who should we bring in?

Raheem Sterling (£7.0m) is Chelsea’s top scoring FPL asset with 70 points, although exactly half of these points have come from his double-digit hauls in Gameweeks 3 and 8. Since then, Sterling has blanked on 4 out of 7 occasions.

According to Opta Stats Sandbox, Chelsea forward Nicolas Jackson (£6.9m) has racked up the most xG (8.70) but his under performance against underlying data is well documented.

We suggest, therefore, that Cole Palmer (£5.4m) is the best Chelsea option. He’s cheap, on penalties, and scores more FPL points per 90 (6.57) than any other Chelsea player.

Suitors should be aware, however, that some believe that Palmer’s game time could come under threat from the return of Christopher Nkunku (£7.3m) who is scheduled to be fit again this month. That being said, Palmer’s performances on the pitch are likely to have been enough to prove to Pochettino that his place is safe.

SELL: Bryan Mbeumo

• Cost: £7.1m
• Selected by: 26.7%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 0.0

With little time to ponder the injury to Bryan Mbeumo (£7.1m), almost 600,000 managers have already moved the Brentford midfielder along. This is a shame, as many new owners had brought him in for his delightful fixture run which was just beginning.

According to Transfer Analytics, an amazing 17.5% of all transfer combinations are to swap Mbeumo for Palmer (this also accounts for a third of midfield transfer combinations).

Under normal circumstances, we would advise caution of moving too quickly, but Brentford boss Thomas Frank was very, well… frank, in his assessment of the Cameroonian’s prospects:

With so many great midfield options available, we cannot afford to have one going to waste.

KEEP: Jeremy Doku

• Cost: £6.7m
• Selected by: 7.1%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 21.7

Relatively invisible from the FPL community in Gameweek 10, the ownership of Jeremy Doku (£6.7m) skyrocketed from 140,000 to over 700,000 after his amazing 22-point haul against Bournemouth in Gameweek 11.

Unfortunately, he has rewarded his owners with just one return since then and is now the fourth most sold player ahead of Gameweek 16, after missing out against Aston Villa due to a knock.

But this could be a mistake. Luton Town may have surprised us, having proven to be the strongest of the newly promoted teams so far. However, they will face an intense challenge when Manchester City comes knocking, and City players may feast on FPL points.

Doku’s underlying numbers are impressive. Amongst City players, he is ranked 2nd for shots per 90, 2nd for attempted assists per 90, and 2nd for FPL points per 90 (only Erling Haaland £14.0m beats him on all three counts).

Owners should keep an eye on the press conferences in case any information about his knock is revealed, but selling him before Luton, and a run of good fixtures – including a potential double in Gameweek 20 – could be a mistake.

By Matt Whelan

Get your festive fix with a Premium membership free for the rest of December by clicking here.