As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 15.

BUY: Martin Dubravka

• Cost: £3.9m
• Selected by: 1.4%

As discussed earlier in the season, sometimes the FPL gods offer us an opportunity that is difficult to ignore. One does not require a medical degree to predict that a dislocated shoulder for Nick Pope (£5.5m) is an injury which is likely to see him out for a long while.

As we enter the busy, festive schedule, Newcastle will look to Martin Dubravka (£3.9m) to fill in between the sticks. This is an incredibly cheap route into the Newcastle defence, which is ranked joint first for clean sheets (16), and third for xGC (14.04) – according to the Opta Stats Sandbox.

If you are amongst the 11.5% who own Pope, or you are amongst the 15.3% who brought in (the now non-playing) Matt Turner (£4.1m) then this move is as obvious as they come. If you have two playing goalkeepers, then this transfer may not be top of your list. However, even the highly owned goalkeepers who are nailed are not performing well, so this could be a shrewd move regardless.

To cap things off, Newcastle is ranked top for defensive fixture difficulty over the next five Gameweeks. A word of warning must be uttered, however. There is always the possibility that Newcastle sign a new goalkeeper in the January transfer window or take on a free agent beforehand. Rumours of a possible move for David De Gea could be immaterial, but the possibility should be considered.

*Note: The Algorithm is not currently showing Dubravka as a high-scoring option. This is a combination of the fact that the severity of Pope’s layoff is not yet fully known to it, nor does it have season data from Dubravka to draw from.

SELL: Nick Pope

• Cost: £5.5m
• Selected by: 11.5%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 0.0

There’s not a great deal to say here, which hasn’t already been said. Rumours are beginning to surface that Pope’s injury could see him out for anywhere between four months, to the end of the season.

When asked, Eddie Howe had this to say:

A non-playing, £5.5m goalkeeper is a criminal waste of budget and must be sorted immediately.

KEEP: Ollie Watkins

• Cost: £8.4m
• Selected by: 37.9%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 32.1

With an awful run of fixtures on the horizon, it is hardly surprising that three of the top four most popular transfers out are Aston Villa players. But if you are to keep one of the three, we believe it should be Ollie Watkins (£8.4m).

The third highest scorer in the game, Watkins has now racked up three double-digit returns, including the famous 23-pointer against Brighton in Gameweek 7. We know what he is capable of, and his underlying data supports his performance so far this season. According to Opta Stats Sandbox, Watkins is ranked joint-second for shots on target (18) and third for xG (8.18).

But, perhaps, more importantly, is the fact that he is a nailed on FPL asset. As we head into the fixture chaos, players who are (more-or-less) guaranteed regular minutes will become gold dust. The half a million players who sold Watkins ahead of the Bournemouth fixture were punished for their haste. The same could be true of those who are selling ahead of Gameweek 15.

By Matt Whelan

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