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Gameweek 14 FPL Differential Focus

30 Nov.

If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.


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In this article we look ahead to Gameweek 14 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.

DEF: Trent Alexander-Arnold

  • Cost: £7.9m
  • Selected by: 8.8%
  • Next Fixture: FUL (h)

Algo defenders GW14-20

One of the more expensive differentials we have recommended, Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.9m) is the defender predicted to score the most points in Gameweek 14, when Liverpool faces Fulham. In fact, our Player Points Projections tool rates him as the top defender over the next six Gameweeks as well.

One thing which has recently gone under the radar is the fact that the English full back has only blanked once in his last five matches (oddly enough against Luton Town!). Liverpool, who we are so used to seeing be leaky at the back, have actually only conceded 11 goals (ranked 2nd best) so far this season.

Those bringing in Alexander-Arnold can look beyond the Fulham match in terms of ease; Sheffield United and Crystal Palace could also offer big returns in Gameweeks 15 and 16.

MID: Jérémy Doku

  • Cost: £6.7m
  • Selected by: 8.5%
  • Next Fixture: TOT (h)

A highly interesting differential this week could be Jérémy Doku (£6.7m). His 22-pointer against Bournemouth has attracted our curiosity, but his underlying creative statistics have really caught our attention.

Doku is ranked 2nd amongst all players for xA per 90 minutes (0.44) – only the Egyptian King can top that with 0.46. When compared to team mate Phil Foden (£7.5m), we can see his creative numbers are really strong.

Foden v Doku

Foden edges Doku in terms of goal threat, but Doku excels against every creative metric, particularly Expected Assists (0.46 vs 0.18), Big Chances Created (0.56 vs 0.27) and Crosses (0.56 vs 0.18).

Those considering Doku need to be aware that Manchester City blank in Gameweek 18 and this therefore needs to be factored into future planning. It goes without saying that managers should also be wary of Pep Roulette, which can strike at any moment.

FWD: Yoanne Wissa

  • Cost: £5.9m
  • Selected by: 8.6%
  • Next Fixture: SHU (a)

Fixtures GW14-20

It may seem counter-intuitive to recommend a forward who has four back-to-back blanks, but Brentford and Yoanne Wissa (£5.9m) are currently emerging from a difficult run of fixtures which has seen them face Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea since Gameweek 10.

They are now out the other side, and a home game against Luton serves as a fantastic starting point for what is a tremendous run of fixtures, stretching as far as Gameweek 21. Like Manchester City, Brentford is one of the two teams who blank in Gameweek 18, however, this is likely to be offset by a double in Gameweek 20.

Luton themselves have perhaps been fortunate to only concede 23 goals as they are ranked bottom for xGC (30.68) and, according to Opta Stats Sandbox, are the second worst team for shots in the box conceded (152).

By Matt Whelan

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