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FPL Gameweek 14: Best Cash Replacements

Fantasy Football Fix 29 Nov.

With a busy period coming up, getting the right picks in defence is going to be crucial to Fantasy Premier League (FPL) success in December and in this blog some of the best options are identified and compared.


Which teams have the Best Fixtures?

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As per the above image from our Fixture Planner, Liverpool have the best 'Defence Difficulty' rating over the next six Gameweeks. The Merseyside outfit host Fulham, Man. Utd. and Arsenal over that period with the games at Sheff. Utd., Palace and Burnley looking good for clean sheets. Newcastle also have an excellent schedule, not only are the Magpies capable of keeping a clean sheet at St. James Park against any opposition, their away games at Everton, Spurs and Luton should bode well for defender returns in defence and possibly in attack too. Chelsea's schedule improves from Gameweek 17, where the Blues play Sheff. Utd., Wolves and Palace, so the likes of R. James, T. Silva are also worth consideration.

What does the Algorithm say?

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As the above image from our Fix Algorithm feature shows, Liverpool and Newcastle are projected to keep the most clean sheets over the next six Gameweeks, which is also in agreement with the Fixture Planner. Chelsea feature in sixth but beyond that, Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheff. Utd., Fulham and Forest do not feature in the 'top eight' despite their kind schedule. The Algorithm still backs Arsenal, Man. Utd and Villa to keep churning out clean sheets. Man. City and Brentford still make the 'top eight' despite their Blank Gameweek 18. Some player options from sides with favourable schedules and form are compared below, using the Fix Comparison Matrix. Trippier is not included as his numbers are significantly better than the other options and if affordable, he is the clear top pick.

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Oleksandr Zinchenko (WOL)

Zinchenko has seen limited minutes in two of Arsenal's last six league matches but as the above image from our Fix Comparison Matrix shows, his attacking numbers over the last six Gameweeks have still been impressive. He has taken six shots (fourth), attempted six assists (fourth) and created two 'big chances' (BC). As the below image from our Stats Sandbox shows, Arsenal have the best defence in the league, no team has kept more clean sheets (six) than the Gunners and the London side are also ranked top for 'Expected Goals Conceded' (xGC) (12.62).

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Diogo Dalot (new)

Dalot has featured for every minute of the last six Gameweeks for Man. Utd. and the right-back is top of the comparison for FPL points (38), goals (one), shots on target (SoT) (two) and attempted assists. However, he has created no BC. However, the immediate fixture for Dalot is off-putting with Newcastle rarely failing to score at St. James Park. Then the Manchester side play Chelsea, Liverpool and Villa over the next six Gameweeks so the schedule is not ideal.

Pedro Porro (mci)

Like Dalot, the immediate fixture for Porro is off-putting but the games beyond that improve, with the Lilywhites playing West Ham, Forest and Everton over the next six Gameweeks. The Spanish international has been taking all of Spurs' set-plays in Maddison's absence and has racked up two assists from corners already (first). He is also second for shots (eight) and top for both SoT (two) and BC created (four).

Kyle Walker (TOT)

In a back-line that often sees rotation, Walker has played every minute over the last six Gameweeks and as the aforementioned image from our Stats Sandbox feature shows, Man. City's xGC numbers remain impressive with the Manchester side trailing only Arsenal (13.09 vs 12.62) for that metric. However, they have kept only four clean sheets and the right-back's underlying numbers are poor with him bottom for both shots (two) and attempted assists (four).

Trent Alexander-Arnold (FUL)

Alexander-Arnold found the back of the net against Man. City last weekend to remind FPL managers of his potential, even in the more difficult fixtures. He is top of the comparison for shots (10) and second for attempted assists (nine) only to Dalot (10). Meanwhile, only Porro (four) has created more BC than his three. His price is still a huge deterrent with Trippier available for less and arguably the better option. FPL managers can consider Tsimikas (£4.7m) or Virgil (£6.1m) to save their budget for other players.

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