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FPL Gameweek 13: Which teams have the best fixtures?

Fantasy Football Fix 20 Nov. 2023

Fixtures come thick and fast on the other side of the international break with many teams not having a free midweek until the New Year. In this blog, the teams with the best and worst schedule over the next five Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweeks are analysed.


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Best Attack Difficulty

As the above image from our Fixture Analyser shows, it looks like an interesting period for FPL managers with teams from the lower end of the table, such as Burnley and Sheff. Utd, having the best fixtures and of the six teams in the above image, only West Ham are being invested in by FPL managers. There are currently injury doubts surrounding Bowen after his withdrawal from international duty, but the problem is not thought to be too serious. Archer could prove a useful first substitute in the upcoming period but it is difficult to identify too many assets to buy from these six teams.

Worst Attack Difficulty

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The teams with the worst 'Attack Difficulty' as per our Fixture Planner are Villa, Luton, Liverpool, Newcastle, Man. Utd and Man. City with FPL managers owning plenty of assets from these sides. It is also worth mentioning that Man. City will have a blank in Gameweek 18, due to their participation in the Club World Cup. It would seem that managers with Cash, Diaby and Watkins in their side should start making exit plans soon and while Liverpool are third bottom, Salah is likely to still score in these games and is an easy hold. Newcastle have one of the most brutal schedules in December with the Magpies one of only three European sides (along with Liverpool and West Ham) to still feature in the Carabao Cup. Their league games are difficult as well with Chelsea and Man. Utd. at home, while they must travel to Everton, who appear to be turning a corner, and Spurs. Gordon owners may be looking for alternatives in the coming weeks if the budget is there. Haaland and Alvarez owners are unlikely to be put off by the schedule and it remains to be seen whether the Norwegian international will feature in Gameweek 13 after his injury for Norway.

Best Defence Difficulty

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West Ham have kept just one clean sheet all season and owners of Areola should keep the faith despite the French international posting poor FPL returns recently, the Hammers are top for 'Defence Difficulty' on our Fixture Planner with games against Burnley, Palace and Wolves all looking good for clean sheets. Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheff. Utd. and Everton defenders could offer cheap rotation options with C. Taylor and Branthwaite playable over this period. Managers who held onto Tsimikas should also be optimistic, the Greek international might be rotated for some of these games but the schedule looks promising on paper.

Worst Defence Difficulty

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Owners of Porro, Udogie and Cash have cause for concern over the upcoming weeks with Villa and Spurs poised to play each other and then Man. City in the following weeks. For those looking to generate cash, again, an Everton defender could appeal. Man. Utd. have kept consecutive clean sheets in their last two games, but the schedule looks to be turning against them again, and investing in Maguire should probably be avoided. Palace's defence has been heavily invested in so fat this season, but of the next five only the fixtures against Luton and Bournemouth look appealing.

Form vs Fixtures

Attack

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As the Stats Sandbox image above shows, Chelsea are the club that top the league for 'Expected Goals' (xG) (13.53) over the last six Gameweeks with Liverpool (13.4) and Villa (12.06) close behind. Man. City (12.05) and Newcastle (11.78) also make the top five which presents an interesting dilemma for FPL managers with four of these teams bottom for 'Attack Difficulty', as touched upon above. Three of the teams with the best fixtures, Burnley, Fulham and Sheff. Utd. are in the bottom three for xG.

Defence

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Arsenal (4.72) are top for 'Expected Goals Conceded' (xGC), with Villa (2.33) and Newcastle (2.36) in second and third. It is interesting to note that Brighton are in fifth (7.40) but are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Liverpool are the only team with a kind defensive schedule to feature in the top eight, which again emphasises investment in their backline. Brentford (7.50) have also been very tidy, but a blank in Gameweek 18 due to their opponent Man. City's Club World Cup participation is a bit off-putting.

What does the Algorithm say?

Goals

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Despite difficult fixtures, Man. City (11.1) are projected to be the top scorers over the next five Gameweeks as per our Fix Algorithm. Liverpool (9.2), Newcastle (8.2) and Villa (8.0) also make the top seven despite a rough schedule. West Ham stand out and their assets should be considered with the Hammers featuring in eighth (7.9).


Clean sheets

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Liverpool (2.1), Man. City (1.9) and Arsenal (1.7) look to be the top sides to target for defensive returns with Man. Utd and Newcastle also close behind despite a difficult schedule. Everton (1.5) look like a good team to target in defence with the Algorithm placing them in eighth.


It looks like the top teams are still expected to deliver goals and clean sheets despite a difficult schedule. Not many of the sides with a kind schedule feature favourably in the projections. Defenders from Spurs and Villa look sellable, but their attackers are still a good hold. Everton and West Ham look to be the teams to target outside last season's top eight sides.

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